2025lovepeace

What is stable profitability? How to understand market trends? Core trading logic of four major capital players! Basic trading literacy!
1. Stock trading essentials
1) The essence of making money in the stock market:
- Find a suitable trading model
- Persist + execute diligently every day
- Trade when opportunities arise, stay in cash otherwise, and reverse repurchase when no opportunities
2) The ultimate secret to stable profitability:
- Keep waiting, replicate your own model (the few buy points you understand and hold long-term gains)
- Deeply understand that “being in cash is an essential part of short-term trading”
- During market downturns or phases where your own view is unclear, it’s best to stay out
3) Characteristics of experts:
- Possess probabilistic thinking—bet small to win big—execute with conviction
- Losers lack probabilistic thinking, only think about making money when buying, and don’t consider how to handle losses
- Don’t set stop-loss or move stop-loss, letting losses run; only setting a stop-loss limits losses and allows profits to run
- Losers lack execution ability, even with good exit rules, they don’t follow through, often influenced by psychological fears and intraday volatility, holding onto false hopes
2. Market规律
1) Market evolution:
- Medium cycle: Always born in despair, develop amidst doubt, end in euphoria
- Short cycle: Small loops around divergence—recovery—strengthening/weakening—entering upward/downward cycles
2) Core of ultra-short-term:
- Based on human nature’s “profit effect + loss effect” cycle evolution, reflected quantitatively in the market
- Manifested through thematic cycles, sentiment cycles, and ecological cycles
3) Cycle thinking:
- Everything has规律 and nodes, that is, cycles
- Cycle thinking in operation must be

Value factors are one of the main factors identified by economists, which tend to generate above-average returns over the long term. They are essentially classifications of stocks based on certain characteristics, such as size and the health of a company's balance sheet. Over the past 20 years, the computer-driven, algorithm-driven quantitative investment industry has developed rapidly, and systematically uncovering factors is at the core of this industry. This is what we often refer to as the Factor Zoo or Factor War. Data source: Bloomberg. Among the $1.9 trillion factor strategies, BlackRock divides the industry into proprietary factors ($1 trillion), enhanced factors (found in hedge funds, $209 billion), and $729 billion in Smart Beta: Data source: BlackRock. Meanwhile, the poor performance of value factors has also been frequently observed recently. It’s uncertain how many strategies based on value factors people are still struggling with. Similarly, for some quantitative analysts, this is enough to make them question themselves. Data source: TCI. "Why I No Longer Consider Myself a Quant," is the title of a recent controversial report by Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, head of quantitative strategy at Bernstein. He believes that the original sin of quants like him is that they mine historical data to find long-term effective clues, but they overlook the facts of market mechanisms. This could mean that methods effective in the past may fail in the future. The core of quantitative investing is to incorporate returns

Contrary to this view are retail participants, who always want to break into others' territories to make money, believing that all opportunities are related to themselves. If you have this kind of thinking, it shows you are still a novice.
1: Similar things gather together, stocks are grouped by categories. Opportunities in the market are layered, such as thematic speculation opportunities and long-term value growth opportunities, which are two extremes in terms of characteristics and operational methods. Thematic operations often give you daily limit-ups, while value operations involve steady gains with pullbacks, continuous and unending. Who gave you the courage to think you can make money from both of these types?
Furthermore, regarding trading techniques, there are even more layers. There are long-term trades, short-term trades, low buy-ins, breakout plays, and more. No matter which layer you're in, it's difficult to easily earn money across layers because your understanding and experience are insufficient, making you vulnerable to being repeatedly harvested.
This simple principle is sometimes misunderstood by traders who become confused when they are in the midst of trading. When a bullish candlestick appears, they haven't yet identified which layer the opportunity belongs to, nor have they decided on the method to use, and they start to act recklessly. Where are they running to?
Another common misconception among traders is the tendency to force opportunities when none exist. For example, when the market is weak and the profit-making effect is poor, they insist on trading in such an environment, forcing themselves to make money—especially during good market conditions when they haven't made much profit themselves.
All successful traders are adept at utilizing a specific layer, trading within their familiar territory. For instance, Lin Yuan focuses solely on value investing, while other capital players focus exclusively on thematic plays and short-term opportunities, not missing any chance in the market. They do not focus on just one layer.

The most straightforward approach is to plot their capital curve. If there is no data for at least one year within three years, compare the market conditions to analyze their returns and drawdowns, consider their position sizes, and evaluate their risk control strategies and execution. Trading involves hierarchical dominance; traders with higher levels can easily understand the skills of those at lower levels. They may not know who will make it to the end, but they definitely know who is doomed. So how can lower-level newcomers judge the situation? Is there any entry point? Let me share my experience: a mature trader possesses these three qualities. First, they are open-minded—doubting everything yet accepting everything. If the market insists there is something unchanging, it’s that it’s always changing. Silence—external forces—coalescence—disintegration—silence, then waiting for the next external force. The evolution of entropy, with each external force taking a different form, leads to different paths of convergence and disintegration. Only those who dare to doubt and are good at absorbing can adjust themselves promptly and effectively, keeping pace with the market. Sticking to a single mindset might sometimes lead to great luck, but if you take it as the truth, luck will eventually fade away. Second, they are simple-minded—trading is a game of capital chips. All the fancy tricks revolve around these two elements. The level of trading skill depends on how deeply one can analyze the market’s surface phenomena. The closer this depth is to the core of the game, the higher the chance of success. Those who have long immersed themselves in this root-and-branch thinking naturally have a clear understanding of superficial appearances, knowing what they are doing and the consequences of their actions. Third, they are pessimists. The brutal nature of the market naturally amplifies the perspective of pessimists.

After the main forces in the stock market are close to escaping, they generally complete their final exit in two ways: one is a rapid surge followed by the stock price freely entering a downward trend; the other is a large-volume bearish break, completing the last round of distribution. There is also a quick upward push designed to lure more buyers and facilitate distribution, characterized by a sharp increase in volume, often hitting the limit-up or continuously hitting limit-ups. When the turnover rate increases abnormally, the main funds are completing their distribution during the rally. During the late stage of the market, before a definitive trend change occurs, this method is what investors should be most wary of. This kind of movement is very deceptive because it indeed involves a volume-driven surge with strong momentum, and many people may try to persuade you to chase the rally in such stocks. While chasing the rally might offer short-term gains, it carries the greatest risk. Many investors often overlook a fact: this volume-driven rapid rise is not at the bottom, but occurs after a stock has already risen significantly. Volume-driven rapid surges only occur at the bottom, especially during breakout volume surges, which are signals of new funds firmly entering the market and should be followed. After a stock has surged significantly, especially those with multiple times gains in a rebound, a final volume-driven rapid rise is almost certainly aimed at attracting your attention to buy in. The smartest approach is to use this rally to follow the main forces' lead and distribute your holdings, rather than chasing the rise. The closer the market is to the end, the more investors should consider the risks. Those who have made multiple profits are more focused on how to cash out. Learning to escape during a rally means you should

1. The most typical poor mindset in the stock market
The most typical poor mindset in the stock market includes the following types. If you also have these thoughts, make adjustments in time:
First, many investors prefer to invest in low-priced, small-cap stocks. They believe such stocks are easier to rise and can be bought in large quantities, making it very cost-effective. However, low prices often have reasons, such as poor company performance or weak growth potential. High-priced stocks are high for a reason, supported by intrinsic value. If you only invest in low-priced stocks, it's easy to step on landmines.
Second, many investors like to be fully invested, never holding an empty position, and never diversify. The main reason for full investment is that retail investors have limited capital. If they also set aside some funds for trading stocks, they can't make much money. Therefore, these people either don't trade or trade with full positions. Retail investors also tend to enter the market at the top of a bull run, when stock prices are rising daily. By the time they realize it's time to enter, prices are already high.
Third, stock trading is only about earning enough for daily expenses. Many investors set a small goal of earning a little from the stock market each day. For many retail investors, earning a few hundred yuan daily is very satisfying. However, such frequent trading may yield profits in the short term, but over time, the more you trade, the greater your losses. Investors who only aim to earn a little for daily expenses will, during a big bull market, pick up some small gains (like sesame seeds) but lose the big watermelon of the bull market.
Therefore, retail investors should have a broader perspective.
Fourth, make quick profits and run, exit at the first sign of loss. When the market starts to turn favorable, they exit quickly, which is very...

1. Do not blindly cut losses. Reckless liquidation during a stock market crash is unwise. Stop-loss strategies should focus on stocks that are currently lightly trapped and have limited upside potential for a rebound. For stocks that have fallen too sharply, it’s better to wait for a rebound before choosing to sell.
2. Do not rush to recover losses. During a market crash, investors are often severely trapped with significant paper losses. Some rush to recover losses by increasing trading frequency or investing more funds. This approach is not only futile but also worsens losses. In a weak market trend, investors should reduce or avoid trading stocks, patiently wait for the market to turn around, and only re-enter when the trend becomes clear and stable.
3. Do not be overly anxious. In a plummeting market, some new investors tend to give up or even act recklessly out of frustration. However, remember that no matter how angry one is, emotions will eventually settle down over time. If there are huge losses in funds, it will be very difficult to recover. Therefore, investors should not vent their frustrations through their trading accounts under any circumstances.
4. Do not panic excessively. Panic is the most common emotion among investors during a market crash. In the stock market, there are rises and falls, slow and fast movements—this is a natural law. As long as the market exists, it will not fall forever; eventually, there will be an upward trend. Investors should take advantage of market downturns to study diligently, research carefully, select stocks actively, and prepare early for the upcoming bull market, so as to avoid repeating the old mistake of chasing gains and selling in panic when the market turns positive.
5. Do not regret excessively.

Over the past decade, I have taken many wrong turns in stock picking. I’ll briefly summarize my insights from the weekends: 1) Choosing industries and companies that I don’t understand; if you pick stocks this way, you’ll either hold them poorly or, even if you do hold them, you’ll find that some go up while others go down. Since you don’t understand them, it’s essentially gambling. Buffett said, you don’t need to know a lot, and you can still be very wealthy… 2) Choosing cyclical stocks with uncertain reversal timing; cyclical stocks have strong explosive potential, but many take a very long time to reverse. Shipping stocks, for example, have been in a cycle since 2007, nearly 15 years before reversing. Who can wait that long? Pig farming is also cyclical, but its cycle is shorter among all cyclical stocks, making it easier to grasp; long-term, roughly a four-year cycle, which is relatively certain… 3) Choosing small industries, non-leader stocks, and high-valuation stocks; a typical example is Qifeng New Material, which had a market cap of only 15 billion yuan in the entire industry. Qifeng was the third-largest leader, bought at a market cap of 5 billion yuan with a valuation over 30 times earnings! The result was a huge loss of 50%. Conversely, investing in large industries, true leaders, and undervalued companies generally isn’t as risky. Also, it’s best if the selected companies have some prospects… 4) Choosing companies with very low industry barriers; although catering is a large industry, there was a restaurant chain called Xiang E Qing that has now delisted. Even choosing Haidilao, long-term, isn’t very promising, mainly because of low barriers and easy replication. Similarly, in clothing, even choosing giants like HLA is uncertain, and women’s clothing is even more difficult… Pig farming also

I. Enterprise
1) Is the enterprise simple and easy to understand?
2) Does the enterprise have a continuous and stable operating history?
3) Does the enterprise have good long-term prospects?
II. Management
4) Is the management rational?
5) Is the management candid with shareholders?
6) Can the management resist the drive of inertia?
III. Finance
7) Focus on return on net assets, not earnings per share.
8) Calculate true "shareholder earnings."
9) Look for enterprises with high profit margins.
10) For every dollar of retained earnings, create at least one dollar of market value.
IV. Market
11) Must determine the market value of the enterprise.
12) Can you purchase at a discount price relative to the enterprise's market value?
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Stick to the principle that every investment target must have a margin of safety, which means buying at a price lower than its intrinsic value. This margin of safety creates a protective cushion. Regarding the statement that "diversification reduces risk," Buffett believes that only those who don't understand what they're doing need broad diversification. If they know nothing about their holdings, they should indeed buy many different stocks and purchase them at different times. In other words, such investors should invest or make regular investments in index funds.
Buffett points out: "On the other hand, if you're not the type of investor who knows nothing, then studying some enterprises and discovering five to ten companies with long-term competitive advantages and reasonable prices is sufficient.
Buffett asks you to think about a question: If your best enterprise right now has the lowest financial risk and the best long-term prospects, why would you still invest in other companies ranked below it?

The good thing about the capital market is that if you choose companies that are relatively sustainable in their operations and their valuations are at historical lows, as long as you maintain enough patience, you can always make some money. Some individual companies might even earn quite a lot... I believe that building super-strong patience in the capital market, besides sustainability and low valuation, is also about selecting companies that meet the criteria of scarcity and differentiation in operation. Basically, such a company is a future big winner; as for myself, I don't have the ability to be certain that a particular stock will definitely be a big winner in the future, but I do have the ability to pick out a few stocks among many that will inevitably become big winners. Even if the other stocks don't turn into big winners, doubling isn't a big problem... An investor with some experience, if they can identify a set of stocks that will double, it's not that difficult. But finding tripled stocks is challenging, and discovering ten-baggers is very difficult! If I heavily invest in a single stock, even after thorough research, due to my own abilities and cognitive blind spots, there's a high probability of misjudgment. And if a misjudgment occurs, it's not just about losses, but more importantly about the time cost. Holding a wrong stock heavily due to misjudgment means that during this period, a batch of truly valuable stocks will soar! And by the time you correct your mistake, it's already too late... Up to now, almost 99% of my shortcomings are evident. Even if I devote my entire life to improving them, I can't turn my weaknesses into strengths. Instead of doing that, it's better to choose to develop the only remaining strength I have—the 1%—and make it grow!! Make it grow!! Keep making it grow!! I believe my one true strength is: first, I have a certain

NO1. Full position + full leverage, monotonously holding a single stock; NO2. Fully investing in a single stock without a solid understanding; NO3. High turnover, frequent trading; NO4. Buying low and selling high, chasing rallies and selling in a panic; NO5. Holding garbage stocks without fundamental support; NO6. Cutting profits and letting losses run; NO7. Building positions with an instant "all in," not understanding that slow is fast… NO8. Lacking valuation knowledge of companies, indulging in baseless fantasies about companies… NO9. Simplifying problems and making them complex, not understanding that less is more… NO10. Superstitious about technical analysis, superstitious about the relationship between volume and price; what other deadly mistakes are there? Share your thoughts in the comments… $MOVE $HYPE $F

Recently, Zhang Yongping asked on Snowball: Which stocks will not only still be around in the next ten years but also outperform their current performance? I think: in ten years, my two sons will be in college, which means that my own car replacement needs, as well as new cars for my sons—at least three cars—are upcoming. I’m not sure what brands they will choose, but most likely new energy vehicles (lithium battery ETFs)... I found that both my sons and their classmates enjoy gaming, and Tencent and NetEase hold 70% of the market share! In ten years, people's online shopping needs will remain unchanged, and the dominance of Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and JD.com will likely stay the same, and demand for food delivery will also persist... The Tencent, Alibaba, NetEase, Meituan, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Baidu, and Xiaomi in the Chinese concept ETFs basically include the companies mentioned above! In ten years, another 200 million people will retire gradually, entering the 60+ age group. In about ten years, the population will reach 1.4 billion, with 450 million seniors over 60. By then, one in three people will be over 60 years old; cardiovascular and the three highs (high blood pressure, high blood sugar, high blood lipids) will be the biggest expenses! (Xinli Tai, Hong Kong-listed innovative drug ETF) In ten years, 250 million people aged 60-70 will be retired but still in good health. Meanwhile, the post-80s and post-90s will be the most daring consumer groups in society. By then, domestic and international travel demands will be particularly strong (Shanghai Airport, Songcheng Performing Arts). In ten years, the main consumer groups will be the 40-50-year-olds from the 80s and 90s, as well as the still relatively young 60-70-year-olds from the 60s and 70s who are retired but not old. These groups are characterized by being willing to spend and having money in hand.

1. Avoid blindly copying others' work and chasing gains by panic selling is very important; 2. Discipline and endurance may be the most important qualities in investing. Having consistent discipline and the endurance to stick to an investment system are very crucial. If you don't have your own system, even holding onto two stocks can still lead to success; 3. Analyzing a company's fundamentals, especially qualitative judgment, may far surpass quantitative analysis. Think about what the company will look like in ten years, whether it will earn more money than today, whether it can be changed by the world, or whether it can change the world; 4. Buying at a sufficiently low price often allows for doubling your investment, but if you want to earn more and more sustainably, it's better to buy future-oriented companies at reasonable prices. However, such companies are indeed very scarce; 5. Building a diversified investment portfolio is more stable than investing in single stocks, but obviously, single stocks can generate faster profits. In the long run, they may be less stable. Actually, Shilos' investment strategy is more suitable for most ordinary people; 6. Short-term trading also has sustainable profit models, but essentially it profits from short-term market fluctuations. To avoid being forced into long-term holding, it’s best to manage your position sizes. Theoretically, the stricter the position control, the lower the risk, but the returns will also be smaller... 7. If you have a portfolio, using market lows and downturns to appropriately leverage can reduce risk. However, leveraging for long-term investments is very uncertain. Leveraging for short-term trades seems better—don't be too greedy; 8. Major cycle resistance and support levels are very convincing. Over the past 30+ years of China's stock market, it has almost never fallen below the Guoyun line. Many stocks, when reaching the strong support at the annual line, often experience large rebounds or even reversals; 9. Business models, profit margins, and debt ratios are indeed very important.

1994-1995: 1. Derivatives are a dangerous combination of "ignorance + borrowing money"; 2. It doesn't matter much about the company's financial reports in the past two years, but whether the invested company has a huge future; 3. Good management treats shareholders very honestly and considers shareholder interests; 4. The key to reading financial reports is the ability to understand what is said in them; 5. In the investment world, you can get rich through common sense and limited knowledge; 6. Companies with problems that have not been solved should not be invested in; 7. Stocks are high risk in the short term, almost zero risk in the long term; 8. When the market declines, you can buy good companies at foolish prices; 9. If the stock market drops 50%, Berkshire will be better in the future because we are long-term stock buyers; 10. Buffett's single-stock limit is 40%, provided that it is well understood, but if you do not understand the company, it is better to diversify broadly; 11. It is very difficult to predict the next two or three years of large investment banks or banks, even their performance in the next two or three months, which is much harder than predicting the shaver business, but if such companies continue to exist (with a high probability), they will receive generous dividends. $PUMPBTC $PARTI $GUN

If we say that the best way for investment novices is to regularly invest in index funds, as Buffett suggests, then for more experienced retail investors, I personally believe that Schloss is the most worthy role model to learn from. The reason is that, firstly, there is no need for Buffett's concentrated investment approach, because most investors do not have strong fundamental analysis skills. Secondly, there is no need for novices' dollar-cost averaging, because most experienced investors are not willing to accept being so inexperienced. However, in reality, the vast majority of investors still cannot outperform index dollar-cost averaging. Therefore, the best approach for an unsatisfied veteran investor is to build a more diversified portfolio, adjusting the positions based on their understanding and confidence in the companies… 1) Schloss typically holds about 100 stocks, with the largest single position sometimes reaching 20%, but such cases are rare… 2) Although Schloss emphasizes undervaluation, it is not for the sake of undervaluing; he also avoids obvious sunset stocks and junk stocks that have no future… 3) While Schloss diversifies his holdings, he does not neglect in-depth research; even his smallest positions are deeply understood in terms of fundamentals… 4) Schloss's buying and selling are done in batches, with pyramid-shaped entries—buy more as prices fall, increasing the position, and do the opposite when selling… 5) Schloss holds each stock for an average of 4-5 years, with an annualized return of 20% over his investment career, indicating that this method is not inferior to Buffett’s… $MOODENG $NEIROCTO $DBR

1. Trade: Don't use trade as a weapon; cooperation is the way to win-win. Doing business should be based on mutual willingness. Don't impose taxes or create confrontation easily. Everyone earns their own money, and the world will be a better place.
2. Cash Reserves: $347.7 billion not spent, due to few good opportunities. Berkshire's cash hits a record high ($347.7 billion), but Buffett straightforwardly says, "Good deals don't come every day," preferring to invest less rather than invest recklessly.
3. Japan Investment: $20 billion is just the beginning. Over the next 50 years, Buffett is bullish on Japan's five major trading companies (Mitsubishi, Mitsui, etc.), praising their excellent management and low valuation, planning to hold long-term. Successor Greg Abel also expressed, "I hope to never sell."
4. AI: A disruptive tool, but Berkshire is not chasing the trend. Buffett admits AI is a "game-changing presence," but confesses he "doesn't understand technology," and has authorized insurance chief Jan to lead research. Berkshire remains cautious about AI investments to avoid becoming "chives." "AI sounds mysterious, but we're not in a rush to spend money. When others burn money to figure it out, we'll buy the dip!"
5. Successor: Abel takes over, continuing the "steady as an old dog" approach. 94-year-old Buffett announced he will step down as CEO at the end of the year, with non-insurance head Abel succeeding. Both emphasize Berkshire will continue to "avoid hot topics, steer clear of junk bonds, and not pursue short-termism." "Abel is rock-solid; he's been with me for 60 years and hasn't learned bad habits. Berkshire will stick to the old ways: buy cheap, hold long-term!"
6. US Economy: Short-term fluctuations are normal; long-term outlook remains optimistic. Buffett states that the US economy