#BitcoinMarketAnalysis
The battle between bulls and bears in Bitcoin in October - who has the upper hand?
October is nearing its end, and Bitcoin is likely to close the month with a spinning candle - a pattern that reflects the balance between bulls and bears.
What are the driving forces for each side this month? Understanding the dynamics of this conflict helps investors identify the main causes and manage risks more effectively.
- Bearish forces in October
Starting with the pessimists, several indicators show increasing selling pressure as October comes to a close. Short-term investors (STH) have been actively taking profits, sending large amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges.
According to CryptoQuant data, approximately 18,700 BTC were moved to exchanges by short-term holders in the last week of October, primarily to realize profits.
Short-term profit and loss chart for Bitcoin holders compared to cryptocurrency exchanges.
This reflects a cautious trend. Despite the recovery of Bitcoin's price from less than $104,000 to over $130,000, many short-term investors have questioned the ability of this rise to maintain its momentum. They chose to exit the market, secure their profits, and wait for clearer price signals.
Additionally, data released by Blockworks and Coinbase shows that the demand for BTC from digital asset traders has dropped to its lowest level this year.
DATs purchase plan by assets. Source: Blockworks and Coinbase
If weak demand continues and short-term shareholders maintain selling pressure, bears may push the price of Bitcoin below the support level of $100,000.
Are there bullish signals?
Nevertheless, the optimists are still far from defeat. On-chain indicators suggest a strong recovery is possible.
First, the stablecoin liquidity ratio oscillator (SSR) remains near its lowest level in the current cycle, indicating an abundance of stablecoin liquidity compared to Bitcoin.
Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator Chart (SSR). Source: Glassnode.
According to Glassnode, a decrease in the SSR rate indicates a large amount of stablecoins waiting on the sidelines - ready to be deployed as soon as market confidence returns.
"Historically, such periods are preceded by stronger supply support when market confidence returns," according to Glassnode.
Moreover, the expansion of USDT (Tether) adds another positive signal. CoinGecko data shows that the market value of USDT has increased from 175 billion USD in early October to over 183 billion USD.
The analysis conducted by Maartun using CryptoQuant data highlights that when the market value of USDT grows faster than its 60-day moving average, it is often associated with short-term bullish momentum in BTC.
Market value change chart for USDT against Bitcoin price . .
Martin pointed out that "the expansion of USDT = new capital... it is still a positive system."
This positive situation still exists, indicating that new capital is entering the market, but has not yet been deployed. Stablecoins, such as USDT, serve as ready liquidity waiting for the next bullish wave to start.
The battle of ups and downs in October remains finely balanced. Bears enjoy a short-term advantage, driven by profit-taking and weak demand. Conversely, bulls rely on the abundance of stablecoin liquidity and historical cycle patterns to predict any reversal.
Regardless of which side will prevail, October 2025 will defy traditions. October could become the worst performing month for Bitcoin since 2019.
The changing market dynamics indicate that historical patterns now have less predictive power than they did in the past.
The battle between bulls and bears in Bitcoin in October - who has the upper hand?
October is nearing its end, and Bitcoin is likely to close the month with a spinning candle - a pattern that reflects the balance between bulls and bears.
What are the driving forces for each side this month? Understanding the dynamics of this conflict helps investors identify the main causes and manage risks more effectively.
- Bearish forces in October
Starting with the pessimists, several indicators show increasing selling pressure as October comes to a close. Short-term investors (STH) have been actively taking profits, sending large amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges.
According to CryptoQuant data, approximately 18,700 BTC were moved to exchanges by short-term holders in the last week of October, primarily to realize profits.
Short-term profit and loss chart for Bitcoin holders compared to cryptocurrency exchanges.
This reflects a cautious trend. Despite the recovery of Bitcoin's price from less than $104,000 to over $130,000, many short-term investors have questioned the ability of this rise to maintain its momentum. They chose to exit the market, secure their profits, and wait for clearer price signals.
Additionally, data released by Blockworks and Coinbase shows that the demand for BTC from digital asset traders has dropped to its lowest level this year.
DATs purchase plan by assets. Source: Blockworks and Coinbase
If weak demand continues and short-term shareholders maintain selling pressure, bears may push the price of Bitcoin below the support level of $100,000.
Are there bullish signals?
Nevertheless, the optimists are still far from defeat. On-chain indicators suggest a strong recovery is possible.
First, the stablecoin liquidity ratio oscillator (SSR) remains near its lowest level in the current cycle, indicating an abundance of stablecoin liquidity compared to Bitcoin.
Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator Chart (SSR). Source: Glassnode.
According to Glassnode, a decrease in the SSR rate indicates a large amount of stablecoins waiting on the sidelines - ready to be deployed as soon as market confidence returns.
"Historically, such periods are preceded by stronger supply support when market confidence returns," according to Glassnode.
Moreover, the expansion of USDT (Tether) adds another positive signal. CoinGecko data shows that the market value of USDT has increased from 175 billion USD in early October to over 183 billion USD.
The analysis conducted by Maartun using CryptoQuant data highlights that when the market value of USDT grows faster than its 60-day moving average, it is often associated with short-term bullish momentum in BTC.
Market value change chart for USDT against Bitcoin price . .
Martin pointed out that "the expansion of USDT = new capital... it is still a positive system."
This positive situation still exists, indicating that new capital is entering the market, but has not yet been deployed. Stablecoins, such as USDT, serve as ready liquidity waiting for the next bullish wave to start.
The battle of ups and downs in October remains finely balanced. Bears enjoy a short-term advantage, driven by profit-taking and weak demand. Conversely, bulls rely on the abundance of stablecoin liquidity and historical cycle patterns to predict any reversal.
Regardless of which side will prevail, October 2025 will defy traditions. October could become the worst performing month for Bitcoin since 2019.
The changing market dynamics indicate that historical patterns now have less predictive power than they did in the past.
