4.16 BTC Market Analysis

Macro:
Tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat, and falling oil prices have released risk appetite; $BTC has its “macro hedging + institutional assets” attribute strengthened, and its correlation with traditional stock markets has decreased. ETFs continue to attract capital inflows, becoming the strongest macro driver; cumulative inflows have already exceeded 5.6 billion dollars, and multiple days in April recorded highs for several months.

However, delayed rate cuts + sticky inflation are still potential drags. In the medium to long term, we still need to watch for the Federal Reserve’s shift. The current target range for the federal funds rate remains at 3.5%-3.75%, and there is no expectation of a rate cut before the FOMC meetings on April 28-29.

Today, focus on the number of unemployment benefit recipients, with an expected value of 21.5.

Technical:
At present, the weekly chart price has not finished repairing yet, and it will continue to trade sideways or move upward. The current direction will still mainly be sideways. On the daily timeframe, this area is currently being pressured by the neckline at 75,500. As long as the 75,500 level can hold, price will trade around 80,500. So in the short term, the risks to watch are whether the 75,500 level on the 1-hour timeframe can effectively hold, and whether the MACD hollow energy histogram can continue to expand. If it doesn’t, a bearish divergence on the 1-hour timeframe is likely to form, which would then lead to a pullback in the market. If the pullback moves downward after the bearish divergence, watch support around 72,500. For the specific price action, refer to the chart below 👇
Support: 72,500-70,800
Resistance: 75,500 (short-term bull-bear dividing line)-80,500