Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio departs from annual lows: on-chain data signals market structure recovery

In the narrative system of the crypto market, the ETH/BTC exchange rate ratio has always been regarded as a core thermometer for measuring industry risk appetite and capital flows. As of April 15, 2026, data from Gate indicates that the ETH/BTC trading pair exchange rate has significantly rebounded from the annual low of approximately 0.028 in February and is currently hovering around 0.0313, reaching a near three-month high. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price is reported at $2,330.43, and Bitcoin’s price at $74,221.5. This recovery in the ratio is not an isolated price phenomenon; it implies structural shifts behind the scenes, including on-chain activity, stablecoin liquidity distribution, and market sentiment.

Low-level recovery and price divergence: ETH/BTC breaks out of the annual trough

From the price trajectory, after experiencing a long downward channel from 2024 to 2025, the ETH/BTC ratio showed signs of trend slowdown and bottoming out at the end of the first quarter of 2026.

According to publicly available market data, the ETH/BTC ratio briefly reached a cyclical high of around 0.038 on January 18, 2026, then fell back to the 0.028 range in February, hitting the lowest level so far in 2026. By April, the ratio gradually rebounded to about 0.0313.

During this cycle, Ethereum’s price demonstrated relative strength. Data from Gate shows that as of April 15, 2026, Ethereum’s price was $2,330.43, and Bitcoin’s was $74,221.5. Ethereum’s market cap is approximately $271.24 billion, Bitcoin’s market cap is about $1.33 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market share remaining at 55.27%.

This change in the ratio breaks the previous market “Bitcoin-only rally” polarization pattern, indicating initial signs of rebalancing capital within the crypto assets.

Triple fundamental resonance: new users, stablecoins, and network throughput

The fluctuation of the ETH/BTC ratio is not entirely driven by speculation. Compared to pure price speculation, changes in the supply and demand dynamics of Ethereum’s underlying network provide a more solid logical basis for this rebound. The following will analyze structurally from three core dimensions.

Enhanced network absorption capacity, quarterly new users surge by 80%

Ethereum’s network significantly increased its user adoption capacity in the first quarter of 2026.

• According to Artemis data, the number of new users on the Ethereum network in Q1 increased by 82% quarter-over-quarter, reaching 284k. During the same period, total network transactions hit a record 200.4 million, a 43% increase quarter-over-quarter.
• The surge in new addresses and transaction volume are leading indicators of the network’s value capture ability. Although Layer 2 scaling solutions share some execution layer costs, the activity increase on the mainnet as the final settlement and data availability layer indicates a rigid demand for ETH as Gas fee medium is returning.

Stablecoin liquidity anchoring, Ethereum deposits reach $180 billion

The flow of stablecoins is a key metric for measuring the real adoption of public chains.

• According to Token Terminal data, the total supply of stablecoins on the Ethereum network has reached a historical peak of $180 billion, a 150% increase over the past three years. Currently, Ethereum hosts about 60% of the global stablecoin circulation.
• The new high in stablecoin supply indicates that Ethereum remains the primary infrastructure for on-chain value storage and settlement. Despite market corrections over the past year, the scale of dollar-equivalent assets on-chain has not decreased but increased, providing ample “ammunition” for subsequent DeFi interactions and asset trading. This deep liquidity accumulation often signals market anticipation of a warming sentiment.

Valuation troughs and mean reversion forces

Before the ratio rebounded, Ethereum’s price was still over 50% below its 52-week high of $4,831 (note: the all-time high is $4,946.05, not yet re-verified).

• ETH/BTC once broke above 0.08 at the end of 2021, but the current level of 0.0313 remains in a historically low zone.
• When on-chain fundamentals and asset prices diverge for a long period, there is an endogenous drive for mean reversion. The current ratio rebound can be seen as a delayed confirmation of the strong Q1 fundamentals at the price level.

Technical rebound or trend reversal

Some analysts suggest that when Ethereum shows resilience exceeding Bitcoin in a risk-on market environment, it is often interpreted as capital rotating into a broader crypto ecosystem. Especially with stablecoin supply reaching the $180 billion milestone, it is viewed as strong support for long-term demand.

Others believe that the current rebound is still within the scope of technical correction. The logic is that the ETH/BTC ratio needs to close above 0.035 at the weekly level to confirm a trend reversal.

Possible future paths of the ratio under three scenarios

Based on current objective data and market structure, this article speculates on the potential impact and evolution paths for the industry.

Industry structural impact

The rebound of the ETH/BTC ratio helps alleviate valuation pressures that have overshadowed non-Bitcoin assets over the past two years. If the ratio can stabilize, it will improve collateral value expectations for DeFi protocols, reduce on-chain liquidation risks, and potentially stimulate token activity in Layer 2 ecosystems.

Multi-scenario evolution projection

The table below hypothesizes future paths of the ETH/BTC ratio based on different variable assumptions:

Conclusion

The rebound of the ETH/BTC ratio from its 2026 lows results from the combined effects of improved on-chain fundamentals and market sentiment recovery. The surge in new Ethereum users and the record-high stablecoin supply provide solid backing for this price signal, distinguishing it from a mere oversold rebound. However, a thorough market structural reversal still requires time for validation. For participants, paying attention to weekly confirmation signals of the ratio and marginal changes in macro liquidity will be key to judging the depth of this crypto market recovery. Gate will continue to provide precise market data and in-depth market observations to help users grasp industry trends.