BTC Halving 2028: Rising Miner Costs, Structural Transformation of Mining Companies Fully Underway

The fourth Bitcoin halving in 2028 (actually the fifth) is expected to occur around April 2028, at which point block rewards will decrease from the current 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. But behind these number changes, the entire mining industry is under unprecedented structural pressure. Average production costs are approaching $80k, hash price is at a five-year low, and Bitcoin trading prices hover around $71,000. Relying solely on mathematical halving projections is no longer sufficient to depict the real picture; a deeper question is: when mining profit margins are squeezed to the limit, can miners still survive?

Why Are Current Mining Production Costs Approaching $80k?

As of April 13, 2026, Bitcoin’s trading price is about $70,876, while the weighted average cash cost for publicly listed mining companies to produce one Bitcoin in Q4 2025 has risen to approximately $79,995. This means that, without considering depreciation and capital expenditures, miners are already operating at a full loss at the current coin price level.

Hash price—the daily mining revenue per unit of hash power—dropped to about $29/PH/day in Q1 2026. Compared to the halving cycle in 2024, when miners experienced rising hash prices and relatively manageable costs, the 2028 cycle begins after a long-term squeeze on profit margins, with industry balance sheets generally weaker.

The main drivers of rising costs come from three dimensions: record-high total network hash power continuously increasing mining difficulty; industrial electricity prices remaining high amid global energy market volatility; and new-generation ASIC miners with capital expenditures far exceeding those of the previous cycle. The combination of these factors means miners in 2026 are facing a more challenging operational environment than before the 2024 halving.

How Will the 2028 Halving Change Miners’ Daily Output?

Currently, about 144 blocks produce roughly 450 BTC in block rewards daily (excluding fees). After the 2028 halving, the block reward will drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, reducing the daily issuance from approximately 450 BTC to about 225 BTC. From a purely output perspective, miners’ revenue sources are cut in half.

But the more critical change lies in the background conditions. Miners entering the 2024 halving cycle experienced a period of rising hash prices and relatively controllable costs; the 2028 cycle begins from a very different starting point—hash prices are under persistent pressure, energy costs are high, and capital markets are more cautious. According to CoinShares’ model, hash prices throughout 2028 are expected to face ongoing structural pressure, likely fluctuating in the range of $35 to $50 per PH per day. If this range holds, then halving the remaining block subsidies by 50% will push marginal miners into sustained losses.

This is not just cyclical risk but structural risk. In previous halving cycles, hash prices eventually recovered to new highs, rewarding operators who could endure short-term pain. But in an environment of continuous hash price volatility, this recovery assumption no longer holds; the more likely outcome is industry consolidation and mergers.

How Miners Are Using Bitcoin Sales to Adjust Their Balance Sheets

The pressure of the 2028 halving is not just theoretical; it’s already reflected in real market actions. In Q1 2026, several leading miners significantly reduced their Bitcoin holdings to lower leverage and raise liquidity—something uncommon in past halving cycles.

MARA Holdings sold over 15,000 BTC in March to reduce leverage; Riot Platforms liquidated over 3,700 BTC in Q1 to deleverage and restructure debt; Cango sold about 2,000 BTC to meet financing needs. Bitdeer’s Bitcoin treasury had already fallen to zero by February 20—despite becoming the world’s largest publicly listed self-mining company with 63.2 EH/s of hash power, it chose to hold no coins.

These actions send a clear signal: miners are shifting from a “mine-and-hold” long-term accumulation strategy to a capital discipline model focused on liquidity and debt management. Mark Zalan, CEO of GoMining, summarized this shift as “capital discipline now more important than maximizing hash rate,” with new deployment projects requiring stricter return thresholds. The space for middle-tier operators is shrinking, and only those with scaled, diversified operations will have a chance to survive the next halving.

Why Is the Industry Transitioning Toward Energy Infrastructure?

When pure block rewards become “increasingly thin business,” strong operators are redefining their business models—from Bitcoin mining companies to energy and data center infrastructure providers.

The core driver of this transformation is economic. The most valuable assets miners hold are not their mining rigs but two things: approved electricity capacity and operational data center sites. As hash prices decline and halving pressures mount, allocating these physical assets to higher-yield uses—such as grid balancing services, heat recycling, or hosting third-party computing loads—can generate higher and more predictable returns than Bitcoin mining.

Industry insiders describe the upcoming cycle as structurally very different from 2024. Cango’s spokesperson notes that “almost nothing about 2028 resembles 2024,” with widening efficiency gaps forcing companies to undertake large-scale equipment upgrades, secure stable power supplies, and build multi-purpose sites. The most successful operators will be those capable of mining, participating in grid balancing, and providing computing infrastructure to third parties.

How Will AI Computing Demand Drive the Restructuring of Mining Business Models?

The demand for AI computing power offers the most direct outlet for miners’ transformation. The surge in data center electricity consumption and the insufficient supply of grid infrastructure create a significant gap. Market data shows that AI and high-performance computing (HPC) contracts signed by listed miners have a combined value exceeding $70 billion.

Core Scientific exemplifies this shift. Its options agreement with CoreWeave will expand its contracted HPC infrastructure to about 500 MW across six sites, with potential total revenue of $8.7 billion over 12 years. Bitdeer is converting its Tydal Norway mine into a 180 MW AI data center, while planning to transform two other sites in Tennessee and Washington, and evaluating a 563 MW site in Rockdale, Texas. CleanSpark has purchased 447 acres in Texas’ Brasoria County to build a 300 MW data center for AI and HPC.

The logic behind this shift is clear: miners now hold the most valuable assets in large-scale AI deployment—electricity capacity and site locations. Allocating these assets to HPC tenants yields higher and more predictable returns than traditional Bitcoin mining. Market assessments show that miners with high-performance computing contracts have significantly higher P/E ratios than pure miners, reflecting investor preference for diversified revenue streams.

How Will Industry Segmentation Reshape the Competitive Landscape?

The impact of the 2028 halving will not be evenly distributed. It will accelerate industry polarization, creating a “winner-takes-all” scenario.

Juliet Ye, spokesperson for Cango, states: “The middle ground has almost disappeared; only operators with scale and diversified portfolios can withstand the next halving.” Miners holding outdated ASICs, facing high electricity costs, or with heavily leveraged balance sheets are at the greatest risk.

In this new competitive environment, core competitiveness is shifting from “mining efficiency” to “electricity procurement and monetization” and “infrastructure operation.” Those capable of financing themselves, locking in long-term power contracts, and monetizing grid services and heat recovery will dominate after 2028. Small and medium-sized miners that cannot adapt are likely to be eliminated in the next halving.

Industry experts predict that the 2028 halving will serve as a stress test: whether miners can turn heavy capital expenditures into sustainable, non-hash rate-dependent revenue streams. The answer may not be clear on the day of halving, but the direction of transformation is set—moving from simple token producers to comprehensive digital infrastructure operators.

Summary

Bitcoin miners are entering the 2028 halving cycle with the thinnest profit margins in years. Average production costs are approaching $80k, hash prices are at a five-year low, compounded by record-high total network hash power and increasingly cautious capital markets, squeezing industry profits. Facing this structural profitability crisis, leading miners are accelerating three key transformations: optimizing balance sheets for financial resilience, converting mining farms into multi-purpose energy infrastructure, and shifting toward AI data center operations. The 2028 halving will not eliminate Bitcoin mining but will profoundly reshape the industry—scale, diversification, and infrastructure operation capabilities will be the core variables determining whether miners can survive the cycle.

FAQ

Q: What will the Bitcoin block reward be after the 2028 halving?

A: After the 2028 halving, Bitcoin’s block reward will decrease from the current 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. The daily new Bitcoin issuance will drop from about 450 BTC to roughly 225 BTC (excluding fees).

Q: Why are miners’ current production costs already approaching $80k?

A: Cost increases are driven by three main factors: record-high total network hash power pushing up difficulty; industrial electricity prices remaining high; and new-generation ASIC miners with significantly higher capital expenditures than previous cycles.

Q: Is the shift to AI infrastructure a temporary strategy or a long-term direction?

A: The move toward AI and HPC infrastructure appears to be a long-term structural trend. Miners’ holdings of electricity capacity and site assets have higher economic value in the context of booming AI computing demand. Several top miners have signed 12-year contracts for AI infrastructure, far exceeding a single mining cycle.

Q: What challenges do small and medium miners face after the 2028 halving?

A: Without scale advantages and diversified portfolios, smaller miners face significant survival risks. Industry insiders note that “the middle ground has almost disappeared,” and those unable to secure stable long-term power or diversify will struggle to remain profitable.

Q: Will Bitcoin’s price rise before the halving to ease miners’ pressure?

A: Historically, Bitcoin prices tend to fluctuate around halving events, but this article does not provide price forecasts. As of April 13, 2026, Bitcoin trades at about $70,876—below the average production cost of around $80k—so miners are under real pressure.