From geopolitics to sports events, Gate provides a complete tutorial on aggregating Polymarket event predictions

The crypto world of 2026 is experiencing a profound narrative shift. As traditional spot and contract trading enter a phase of stock-based competition, prediction markets are rapidly rising due to their unique event-driven logic. In March 2026, the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange Gate officially integrated with Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market platform globally, becoming the first centralized exchange (CEX) to do so. For Gate’s over 51 million users, this means that with just a few clicks within a familiar trading environment, they can participate in global hot event predictions, bridging the gap from “trading assets” to “trading information.”

Why is Polymarket event prediction worth paying attention to?

Polymarket is currently the world’s largest decentralized prediction market platform, allowing users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events — from geopolitical conflicts, cryptocurrency price trends, to sports results and political elections, nearly all controversial events can be found with corresponding prediction contracts on the platform.

Unlike traditional polls or analyst opinions, probabilities on Polymarket are determined through real money betting — correct judgments can profit, while incorrect ones result in direct financial loss. This mechanism naturally improves prediction accuracy. In fact, a Federal Reserve research report confirmed that prediction market performance “significantly outperforms Bloomberg consensus expectations.”

Data shows that prediction markets are exploding in influence. As of April 7, 2026, the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket reached $52.7 billion, with Polymarket contributing $24.3 billion. In March 2026, the monthly user count for prediction markets increased by 118% year-over-year to 865,411, with nominal trading volume approaching $23.89 billion. On March 27, 2026, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, completed a $600 million investment in Polymarket — traditional financial giants are viewing crypto-native prediction platforms as “real-time macroeconomic radar.”

Why choose to participate in Polymarket event predictions on Gate?

Despite rapid growth, Polymarket’s native usage barriers have long limited ordinary users’ participation. Users need to register separately, set up a Web3 wallet, transfer USDC across chains (Polygon network), pay gas fees, and perform a series of complex operations. Gate’s integration precisely solves this pain point, bringing three core advantages to its 51 million users:

1. Seamless fund account access, no gas fees

Users don’t need to manage mnemonics or bridge assets across chains; they can directly use USDT in their Gate account to participate in prediction trades, without additional gas fees. The participation threshold is lowered to the same level as spot trading.

2. “Prediction mode + trading mode” dual architecture

Gate innovatively introduces a dual-mode design. The prediction mode features a user-friendly interface that clearly displays “Yes/No” probabilities and odds, suitable for beginners to quickly get started; the trading mode offers order books, candlestick charts, market depth, and limit/market orders, catering to professional traders’ strategic needs.

3. Simplified settlement mechanism

After event settlement, winning profits are automatically converted 1:1 into stablecoins and transferred to the spot account, eliminating on-chain settlement waiting periods and slippage risks, achieving “what you see is what you get.”

Complete steps to participate in Polymarket event prediction with one click on Gate

Preparation

Ensure your Gate App is updated to version v8.12.5 or above. This is the minimum version requirement for using the Polymarket integration feature.

Step 1: Enter the prediction market portal

Open the Gate App, find the “Prediction Market” entry on the homepage or trading section. This portal is usually prominently located in the feature navigation bar; click to enter the list of Polymarket events.

Step 2: Select the event you are interested in

Once on the page, you will see a list of popular prediction contracts covering sports, cryptocurrencies, macroeconomics, political elections, and more. As of April 7, 2026, popular events include “US military entering Iran before April 30” (total trading volume of 193 million USD), among others.

Step 3: Choose “Prediction Mode” or “Trading Mode”

• For beginners: select “Prediction Mode.” The interface intuitively displays the “Yes/No” probabilities and odds for each event, similar to multiple-choice questions; click to confirm and place your order.
• For advanced users: select “Trading Mode.” The system provides full order book, candlestick charts, market depth, and limit/market order functions, suitable for detailed strategic deployment.

Step 4: Confirm your order and wait for settlement

Choose “Yes” or “No” based on your judgment, enter the amount of shares you want to buy, and confirm to complete the trade. After the prediction event ends, the platform will settle based on the final outcome. If your prediction is correct, your position will earn corresponding profits.

Recent popular prediction events overview (as of April 10, 2026)

• US-Iran ceasefire contracts: As of March 31, Polymarket has 246 active markets related to Iran, with a total trading volume exceeding $1 billion. The probability of “Trump announcing the end of Iran military operations by June 30” has risen to 80%.
• SpaceX IPO prediction: The probability that “SpaceX will IPO before June 15” has reached 75%.
• Polymarket token issuance prediction: On April 7, the prediction market data for Polymarket’s first-day FDV shows a 13% chance of FDV exceeding $2 billion, and a 6% chance of exceeding $10 billion.

Risk warning and investment advice

While prediction markets offer investors a new way to participate in global hot events, they are highly volatile and risky. Investors are advised to:

• Diversify investments: avoid concentrating all funds in a single event, maintain a diversified portfolio;
• Pay attention to event background: conduct in-depth analysis of the events involved and understand the driving factors behind them;
• Start small: for first-time participants, it’s recommended to begin with small amounts and gradually familiarize themselves with prediction market operations.

Summary

The explosive growth of Polymarket signifies a profound transformation in the crypto world from “trading assets” to “trading events.” As the first centralized exchange to integrate Polymarket, Gate enables over 51 million users to directly use USDT to participate in global hot event predictions within a familiar trading environment — no Web3 wallet, no cross-chain operations, no gas fees needed. Just update the Gate App to version v8.12.5, enter the “Prediction Market,” select your interested events, and you can start your “event trading” journey with a single click.