Michael Saylor: Bitcoin prices may have bottomed out, and quantum risk is exaggerated

As the crypto market seeks direction amid the complex interplay of macro liquidity and on-chain structures, the judgments of industry flagship figures often serve as key references for interpreting noise. Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor recently expressed views at a Mizuho Financial Group event, believing that Bitcoin may have already formed a price bottom after the forced deleveraging at the start of the year. Meanwhile, he also provided a clear quantitative assessment regarding the widely discussed threat of quantum computing. This article will analyze this event, combining Gate market data, on-chain structures, and industry evolution logic to objectively dissect the current market position and potential evolution paths.

Core Thesis Retrospective

According to the minutes of the event published on April 9, 2026, Michael Saylor explicitly stated two core judgments:

• Regarding the price bottom: Bitcoin may have bottomed in early February 2026 around the $60,000 range.
• Regarding the bottom logic: The bottom is not solely determined by valuation models but driven by exhaustion of seller forces. The decline at that time cleared out high-leverage positions and forced sellers.
• Regarding quantum risk: The threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin’s cryptographic algorithms is significantly exaggerated at this stage. Even if there is a theoretical risk in the future, its realization is at least decades away, and by then, appropriate cryptographic migration plans will be in place.

It is important to clarify that the above reflects Michael Saylor’s viewpoints based on his research framework, representing subjective market participant judgments.

On-Chain Verification of the Bottom Logic

To examine the objective basis of this judgment, we need to revisit the market structure and on-chain behavior in the first quarter of 2026. The following analysis is based on publicly available market data and Gate market data as of April 9, 2026.

Facts and Data Presentation:

• Price behavior verification: Gate data shows that Bitcoin indeed hit a low around $60,000 in early February, followed by a recovery rally. As of April 9, Bitcoin was quoted at $70,957, over 18% above that bottom zone. The all-time high was $126,080, placing the current price at approximately 56% of that peak.
• Supply and demand structure analysis: The core of Saylor’s bottom logic is “seller exhaustion” and “structural buyers’ absorption.” Data indicates that during the February decline, panic selling by short-term holders peaked and then quickly subsided, while long-term holders’ supply showed a moderate rebound.
• Liquidity background: Capital flows into US spot ETFs provided a buffer during this period. While not predictive, the ongoing net inflows into ETFs objectively offset some of the daily miner output pressure.

Dissecting Public Opinion: From Credit Engines to Quantum Panic

Current crypto market sentiment shows polarization, with this event effectively connecting two recent focal topics.

Bitcoin’s new growth engine—digital credit markets

Saylor suggests that the next bull cycle’s catalyst will no longer be purely risk-hedging narratives or spot ETF inflows, but the combination of bank credit and digital credit. For example, Strategy’s preferred stock of STRC offers an annualized yield far below Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation expectations. This mechanism is seen as an early practice of transforming Bitcoin from a “non-yielding asset” into a “capital market engine.”

This is a forward-looking perspective on asset function evolution. Its logic is that once Bitcoin’s market cap is sufficiently large and volatility converges, a Bitcoin-backed credit market will unleash liquidity far exceeding simple “buy-and-hold” strategies.

The realistic boundary of quantum computing threats

Recently, academic and cybersecurity discussions about quantum computing cracking elliptic curve encryption have intensified. Saylor describes this as “theoretical, distant, and solvable.”

From a cryptographic engineering perspective, Bitcoin’s SHA-256 algorithm and ECDSA signatures do face future theoretical threats from quantum computing. However, the current physical qubit count and error correction capabilities of quantum computers are still several orders of magnitude away from cracking Bitcoin’s encryption. Moreover, the Bitcoin developer community has begun pre-research on post-quantum cryptography migration paths.

Multi-scenario Evolution: Future Paths Based on Current Structures

Combining the current price of $70,957 and a market cap of approximately $1.33 trillion, we can project possible future scenarios based on different variables. The following are speculative models, not definitive forecasts.

Scenario 1: Baseline projection (gradual penetration of credit markets)

• Trigger conditions: More traditional financial institutions launch Bitcoin-based yield products or collateralized lending services.
• Evolution logic: As market size expands, Bitcoin’s volatility further declines, gradually shifting from a risk asset to a digital collateral. This does not necessarily mean vertical price increases but could involve bottom support elevation and stable market share. The current market share of 55.27% indicates Bitcoin is still absorbing off-market liquidity.

Scenario 2: Risk scenario (stress test under macro liquidity contraction)

• Inverse condition: If major global economies unexpectedly tighten monetary policy, causing ETF funds to continue flowing out.
• Logical consequence: Although the $60,000 zone is seen as a seller exhaustion point, extreme liquidity vacuum could test this support. The market’s true bottom would then depend on buyer absorption depth. Saylor’s logic holds if “limited sellers,” not “unlimited buyers,” is the premise.

Scenario 3: Structural upgrade scenario (technological narrative validation)

• Positive catalysts: Significant increase in Bitcoin layer-2 network transaction volume, successful expansion of smart contract functionalities.
• Impact assessment: This would fundamentally change Bitcoin’s role from a mere store of value to a network with stronger network effects and internal economic cycles.

Conclusion

Michael Saylor’s discourse offers a unique perspective for market participants—shifting from short-term price volatility back to long-term capital structure evolution. The view that $60,000 is a confirmed bottom has some support from the recent two-month price recovery; the assessment of quantum risk provides a rational timeframe to ease unnecessary market anxiety.

For market participants, understanding the evolution of crypto assets must go beyond simple supply-demand charts, penetrating into institutional capital allocation, credit market infrastructure, and underlying technological security. Gate will continue to provide high-quality market observations and in-depth analysis based on objective data and industry evolution.