BTC Four-Year Cycle: Does It Still Exist?

Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle — starting with the halving and following a pattern of one year of rise, one year of peak, and one year of correction — has historically appeared as an almost "iron law" in the past three cycles (2012, 2016, 2020). However, for the 2024-2026 cycle, I believe the four-year cycle is significantly weakening and will no longer serve as a reliable analytical framework in the future.

The reasoning is as follows:

① The supply shock effect of halving has been greatly diluted by ETF and institutional fund flows. Previously, halving meant hundreds of fewer newly mined bitcoins per day, reducing marginal selling pressure and naturally boosting prices. But now, daily net inflows/outflows of spot ETFs often reach hundreds of millions of dollars, far exceeding the value of bitcoins sold daily by miners (about $30-50 million). The mechanical push of halving on prices has been overshadowed by larger macro capital flows.

② Market structure has shifted from "retail + miners" to "institutions + macro." In earlier cycles, miners acted as continuous natural sellers; after halving, they were forced to hold or liquidate, creating supply tightness. Today, Bitcoin's main pricing power has shifted to hedge funds, ETF market makers, and options traders. These players focus more on dollar liquidity, interest rate expectations, and stock market correlations rather than the code event every four years.

③ Halving has transformed from an "unexpected positive" into a "fully anticipated news event." Before the 2024 halving, Bitcoin hit a record high (above $73,000), something that had never happened before. Market anticipations led to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern — similar to how known events are priced in gold and stocks.

My personal view: Bitcoin will not lose its long-term store of value attribute, but the "four-year cycle" as a simple calendar-based prediction tool is gradually becoming invalid. Future focus should be on:

① The Federal Reserve's balance sheet and M2 trends
② The 60-day correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 (currently around 0.6-0.7)
③ Implied volatility surface of options and changes in large positions

Investors who continue to mechanically bet on "big rise after halving" may face serious timing mismatch risks. Bitcoin is moving toward maturity — and one hallmark of mature assets is that there are no more arbitrageable fixed cycles.