Will cryptocurrencies continue to decline after the non-farm payroll report? Will June see the first rate cut of the year?

First, look at the data:
In March, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 178k jobs, compared to an expected 60k (a bearish signal for risk assets).

According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 99.5%. The chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by June is 7.8%, while the probability of no change is 91.7%. The probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 0.5%.

Data interpretation:
Employment has rebounded significantly, with an increase nearly three times the expected amount, indicating that the U.S. labor market has quickly bounced back after an abnormal contraction in February. The U.S. economy’s resilience exceeds expectations and is not in recession; instead, it shows strong recovery signals. This is not a mild recovery but a positive sign stronger than expected, which in the short term will reinforce market confidence in a soft landing or no recession.

Direct impact on crypto:
Strong NFP is usually seen as a sign of an overheating economy, which will reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in 2026 (especially in June). The market will reprice: the dollar will strengthen, U.S. Treasury yields will rise, liquidity expectations will tighten. Cryptocurrencies are typical risk assets, sensitive to interest rates—higher rates mean increased opportunity costs for holding BTC/ETH, and funds are more likely to flow into dollars or bonds. In the short term, they are likely to face downward pressure.

Summary:
A resilient U.S. economy is itself positive—cryptos, as risk assets, need a healthy economic environment to rise long-term. But short-term macro expectations are the main driver; tonight and next week’s market movements will mainly be driven by the diminished expectations of rate cuts.