TD Cowen: The probability of the Crypto Market Structure Act passing this year is only one in three

Golden Finance reports that on April 1, TD Cowen’s Executive Director Jaret Seiberg said in a Monday research note that prospects for the crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, are “increasingly bleak.” He believes the odds of the Senate advancing the bill and getting it passed by the House are only one-third.
The bill is still pending in the U.S. Senate. Congress has entered a two-week Easter recess. Seiberg noted that a stablecoin yield compromise package recently pushed by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks is “not enough” to move the bill forward. The proposal would ban earning yield on idle stablecoin balances, but would allow activity-based rewards when stablecoins are used.
Seiberg believes this compromise may not satisfy any party: for crypto platforms, it would curb investors’ use of stablecoins for liquidity management; for banks, it would incentivize crypto platforms to push stablecoins into everyday payments, threatening core deposit business.
Seiberg said the bill is most likely to move before late July and prior to the August recess, when recess pressure may force senators to reach a compromise. He also noted that even senators who had previously been optimistic are lowering their expectations; Senator Mark Warner has cut the probability of passage of the bill from 80% to 50% to 60%.