ZachXBT Preview Reveals Today: $29 Million Bet on Polymarket and the Axiom and Meteora Insider Controversy

Today, the crypto world is holding its breath. The on-chain detective ZachXBT’s highly anticipated investigation report into insider trading, originally scheduled for February 26, has become a dramatic suspense due to “inevitable information leaks.” Meanwhile, the final chapter of the prediction market game on Polymarket surrounding this event has also unfolded. The event contract has become the platform’s second most popular event, with trading volume second only to geopolitical predictions about “the U.S. attacking Iran,” approaching nearly $29 million.

Data Showdown Night: The Final Distribution of $29 Million Bets

In the final moments before the truth is revealed, funds on Polymarket have cast their last “public opinion votes” with chips. As of February 26, 2026, data analysis shows a clear duel between two frontrunners.

Other projects like World Liberty Financial, Bybit, MEXC, Coinbase, etc., each with millions of dollars in trading volume, form a long tail of suspicion with probabilities ranging from 4% down to less than 1%. Notably, the “Others” category still holds a 14% probability and over $570,000 in trading volume, leaving the final outcome with the greatest suspense.

Public Sentiment and Speculation: When Truth Becomes a Trading Asset

As the results are about to be announced today, discussions around this event have entered their most intense phase. The focus of public opinion has shifted from initial “guessing who the insider is” to deeper dimensions.

First, is a reflection on the predictive market’s self-fulfilling function. ZachXBT’s investigation was an independent event, but Polymarket’s existence has caused tens of millions of dollars to bet on an unconfirmed fact. This betting, in turn, causes probability fluctuations that have a tangible impact on the reputation of related projects. Whether Axiom or Meteora are ultimately named, they have already borne significant attention costs in this storm of public opinion.

Second, is a redefinition of the “information leak” nature. In traditional finance, information leaks may lead to insider trading investigations. In the crypto world, ZachXBT’s “investigation process leak” and Polymarket’s “public guessing” form a strange symbiosis. Some market participants believe that Polymarket’s high odds are itself a form of “information aggregation,” possibly closer to the truth than any individual. This view equates market pricing with a tool for discovering facts, whose validity will be tested today.

Multi-Scenario Evolution

Based on the latest data and the upcoming results, we project the immediate evolution of the situation:

Scenario 1 (High Probability): Investigation points to Axiom or Meteora.

• If the outcome aligns with the current top two probabilities, it will be seen as a major success for the prediction market. The market will reinforce its “collective intelligence” pricing ability. The named project will face direct regulatory and trust crises, with related assets potentially experiencing sharp volatility. Meanwhile, addresses that bet successfully on Polymarket will reap huge rewards, possibly encouraging more “smart money” to participate early in such event pricing.

Scenario 2 (Medium Probability): Investigation points to “Others” or long-tail projects.

• If the result is a surprise, such as pointing to Bybit, MEXC, or other projects with less than 5% probability, Polymarket will experience a significant “pricing failure.” All bets on Axiom and Meteora could face zeroing risks. This will challenge the effectiveness of prediction markets as information aggregators and may trigger a deep reflection on “herd effects” and “fund manipulation.”

Scenario 3 (Low Probability): The investigation is proven outdated or unconfirmable.

• The greatest blow to market confidence. If leaks lead involved parties to destroy evidence early, or if the investigation’s conclusions become ambiguous, the $29 million wager will lack a clear settlement basis. This could cause disputes over contract settlement on Polymarket and potentially damage ZachXBT’s long-term reputation as an on-chain detective.

Conclusion

As February 26 approaches, this “public trial”—originating from a tweet, fermenting in prediction markets, and affecting the entire industry—is about to reach its conclusion. Regardless of the final investigation outcome, this event has left a profound mark on the history of crypto development. It demonstrates that individual on-chain detectives can influence prediction markets worth tens of millions of dollars; it also exposes that while prediction markets can be efficient information tools, they are also highly susceptible to capital manipulation and emotional amplification. Today’s truth will not only determine the fate of millions of dollars in bets but also serve as a valuable case study for how the crypto industry balances transparency and market manipulation.