You do not need to overcomplicate it.

I don't understand why everyone finds its so hard to see these things.
Well, I do, because emotions rule 99% of people.
But anyone can line up these three fundamental macro charts and analyse where we are.
It literally takes two minutes.
In every single cycle we have had:
1. GOLD tops as ISM moves into expansion
2. Bitcoin tops between 476d and 517d after
It is very clear to see that.
And it is not a coincidence this happens, it happens for fundamental macro reasons.
GOLD is a strong risk off asset that performs well in economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
When ISM breaks into expansion, that uncertainty is removed and GOLD finds its top, as ISM continues to expand.
An expanding economy improves liquidity conditions and that is why Bitcoin then has its turn.
Again, this is not a random chart that has no intrinsic link.
These three charts represent different stages of a macro cycle and when you put them together, it becomes clear.
Take a look at this again now...
Do either GOLD or ISM look like they are anywhere near a position that signals Bitcoin having 9 months of a bear market left?
Not at all.