Aside from the recent large spike — comparable in magnitude to some of the largest corrections we’ve seen in past cycles — the overall behavior is not fundamentally different from historical regimes. In other words, the volatility of the short-term growth rate looks dramatic in isolation, but it is still well within the envelope of what Bitcoin has exhibited before. Crucially, the system is still growing along the trajectory implied by the power law. What has changed is not the underlying scaling behavior, but the reference level around which price is oscillating. We are following the same long-term growth dynamics, just anchored to a different starting point within the power-law channel. This is precisely what you expect in a scale-invariant system: large short-term deviations can and do occur, but they average out over time, while the long-term scaling relationship remains intact.
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This is a zoom-in of the daily slopes.
Aside from the recent large spike — comparable in magnitude to some of the largest corrections we’ve seen in past cycles — the overall behavior is not fundamentally different from historical regimes. In other words, the volatility of the short-term growth rate looks dramatic in isolation, but it is still well within the envelope of what Bitcoin has exhibited before.
Crucially, the system is still growing along the trajectory implied by the power law. What has changed is not the underlying scaling behavior, but the reference level around which price is oscillating. We are following the same long-term growth dynamics, just anchored to a different starting point within the power-law channel.
This is precisely what you expect in a scale-invariant system: large short-term deviations can and do occur, but they average out over time, while the long-term scaling relationship remains intact.