Bloomberg analyst McGlone warns: Bitcoin's trend mirrors the 2008 crisis pattern, market divergence deepens

Bloomberg Senior Commodities Strategist Mike Glenn recently published an analysis comparing Bitcoin’s price movements to the market patterns before the 2008 financial crisis, offering a warningary forecast. He suggests that Bitcoin could fall from its historical high to $50,000 by 2026, a decline of nearly 60%, and does not rule out the possibility of dropping back to $10,000.

Market reactions to this pessimistic forecast are polarized. Analyst Gautam Chhugani from Bernstein offers an entirely opposite outlook, expecting Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by 2026. The divergence stems from Bitcoin’s valuation relative to gold reaching a historic low point.

Crisis Signals

In his latest analysis, strategist Mike Glenn compares current market conditions to the patterns seen before the 2008 global financial crisis. He notes a set of alarming signals: gold prices rising, oil prices falling, and stock markets experiencing volatility. Historically, such asset combinations often indicate a rapid withdrawal of funds from high-risk assets. Glenn emphasizes that although Bitcoin is often called “digital gold,” during genuine market panic moments, its performance tends to resemble that of high-risk assets like tech stocks.

Glenn’s analysis is based on the overlay of three long-term paths: mean reversion after extreme wealth creation, changes in Bitcoin’s relative valuation to gold, and a reassessment of the overall risk premium in the crypto ecosystem. He compares Bitcoin’s downward trend to the 2007 stock market response to Federal Reserve policies, noting that global markets are at a critical juncture shifting from inflation to deflation.

The Inverted Relationship Between Gold and Bitcoin

One of the most striking phenomena in the current market is Bitcoin’s valuation relative to gold dropping into its lowest historical range. This is measured by the BTC-XAU ratio’s Z-score, which indicates how much the current ratio deviates from its long-term average. When the reading falls below -2, it suggests Bitcoin’s relative trading price compared to gold is more than two standard deviations below its normal range, a rare occurrence.

Historical data shows that when the BTC/XAU ratio enters the -2 standard deviation zone, it often marks a key bottoming point for Bitcoin. For example, a similar undervaluation signal in November 2022 preceded a roughly 150% significant increase in Bitcoin’s price over the following year.

Analyst Julius notes, “All indicators suggest that Bitcoin will significantly outperform gold in the coming months.” However, Glenn interprets this differently. He believes that if deflationary pressures persist and gold remains resilient due to its safe-haven status, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio could further revert to its historical range. In his view, this is not an aggressive assumption.

Divergence in Institutional Perspectives

Faced with Glenn’s warnings, market opinions are clearly divided. On one side, traditional financial institutions like Standard Chartered have recently downgraded Bitcoin’s mid- to long-term target price, adjusting their 2026 forecast from $300,000 to about $150,000. Research from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin trading within the $80,000 to $90,000 range has already exerted market pressure, comparable to the trend seen in late January 2022.

On the other side, several research institutions maintain a constructive bullish outlook for 2026. K33 Research predicts Bitcoin will outperform stock indices and gold, believing that regulatory wins will outweigh capital allocation effects. Fidelity Digital Assets’ Vice President of Research, Chris Kuiper, suggests the possibility of a “super cycle,” viewing the current price decline as a correction within a bull market that could lead to new all-time highs in the future.

Interplay of Macro Factors

Bitcoin’s current uncertainty is firmly embedded within the global macroeconomic cycle. By 2026, the market will face multiple macro influences, from monetary policy to regulatory developments, which will have profound impacts on the crypto market.

On the macro front, it is expected that the Trump administration may appoint dovish Federal Reserve chairs, favoring expansionary policies over tightening, creating a “loose” environment that could benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin.

In terms of regulation, the market anticipates the passage of the Clarity Act in Q1 2026, with broader crypto legislation also expected to be signed early in the year. However, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee has delayed hearings on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which has become a short-term market pressure point.

Fidelity Digital Assets’ Vice President Kuiper notes, “We are seeing a fundamental shift in investor structure and categories; traditional fund managers and investors are starting to buy Bitcoin, but we have only scratched the surface regarding the scale of funds they might bring into this space.”

Bitcoin Price Performance and Market Data

As of January 21, 2026, Bitcoin’s market data presents a complex but informative picture. According to Gate data, Bitcoin’s price is currently $89,482.5, down 3.00% in the past 24 hours but still up 1.30% over the past 7 days.

Bitcoin’s market cap is currently $1.84 trillion, representing 56.42% of the entire cryptocurrency market, indicating its dominant position in digital assets. The 24-hour trading volume is $1.38 billion, showing ongoing market activity. Market sentiment indicators assess current Bitcoin sentiment as “bullish,” despite short-term adjustment pressures. From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical decision point, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting between $95,000 and $95,500.

Derivatives market data also provides important insights. The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts is currently only 4%, well below the healthy bull market level of 8%-12%. This low funding rate reduces the likelihood of large-scale liquidation cascades but also reflects limited retail participation.

Bitcoin’s price in the first month of 2026 shows increased volatility, with a 3.00% drop in 24 hours but still maintaining a 1.30% weekly gain. Bulls and bears are engaged in fierce battles within key price zones, with trading volume remaining high at $1.38 billion. On the other hand, institutional enthusiasm continues to heat up, with Morgan Stanley planning to allow advisors to allocate 0-4% of client portfolios to Bitcoin ETFs, and E*Trade’s retail crypto trading expected to launch in the first half of 2026. This institutional participation contrasts with retail investor caution, shaping a unique landscape for the 2026 crypto market.

Market focus has shifted from mere Bitcoin price fluctuations to broader macro indicators and market structural changes—gold’s safe-haven attributes are regaining favor, and Bitcoin needs to find a new balance between “digital gold” and “risk assets.”