Peter Schiff predicts Bitcoin's "stunning crash": Is silver breaking $100 a sign of an impending crisis?

“Everyone expects Bitcoin to follow gold and soar to new highs. But the market has given speculators too much time to buy in.” Gold advocate and economist Peter Schiff warned on social media, “A more likely scenario is that Bitcoin fails to keep pace with gold’s gains, which will weaken its status as ‘digital gold,’ ultimately leading to a sharp decline.”

In another comment, he further clarified: “The market behavior that silver is experiencing is about to repeat itself with Bitcoin. The rise in silver will signal a catastrophic crash for Bitcoin.”

The Logic Behind the Warning

Schiff’s warning is not an isolated view but is based on his consistent macroeconomic outlook. This long-time critic of cryptocurrencies is turning his concerns about the US dollar and US debt into a pessimistic forecast for Bitcoin. He believes that the current rise in precious metals is a sign of a broader financial storm. He compares the current rise in gold and silver to early signals of the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, which ultimately led to the 2008 global financial crisis.

Within his analytical framework, the over $36 trillion in US national debt, ongoing inflation pressures, and geopolitical factors are eroding the dollar’s position. When investors lose confidence in fiat currencies, they do not flock to Bitcoin but revert to traditional stores of value—gold and silver. Schiff’s view is that once the crisis of confidence in fiat currencies truly erupts, Bitcoin will face severe tests and will not serve as a safe haven as many supporters expect.

Data Comparison and Actual Performance

To understand Schiff’s warning, we need to review recent asset performance. Data from 2025 provides a clear contrast: gold prices rose over 60% throughout the year, while Bitcoin declined about 7% in the same period. This performance discrepancy underpins Schiff’s skepticism of the “digital gold” narrative. If Bitcoin truly has similar store-of-value properties as gold, why does it underperform during gold’s strong rally? Schiff emphasized this point in an interview: “What’s happening with gold and silver right now reminds me of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.”

As of January 21, 2026, Bitcoin’s price is $89,388.8, down 3.14% in the past 24 hours; meanwhile, Ethereum’s price is $2,976.69, down 6.49% in the same period [citation: latest prices needed].

Different Voices in the Market

Despite Schiff’s stern warning, many other voices in the market remain optimistic about 2026. Several well-known institutions and industry leaders hold contrasting views.

Institutions are generally bullish; analyst Bernstein predicts Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2026, with a peak possibly hitting $200,000 in 2027. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse forecasts Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of 2026. ChainCatcher’s analysis suggests that with support from sovereign funds and institutional capital, Bitcoin might even challenge a $250,000 target. Behind these optimistic forecasts is increasing institutional recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic asset. According to a Grayscale report, by the end of 2025, the assets under management in US Bitcoin ETFs reached $1.03 trillion, with institutional investors accounting for 24.5% of inflows.

Multi-Dimensional Risk Analysis

Echoing Schiff’s warning, market observers also highlight multiple risk factors facing Bitcoin in 2026. Macroeconomic volatility is a key concern; if major economies revert to tighter monetary policies, assets like Bitcoin that do not generate yields could face pressure.

Regulatory changes also pose uncertainties. New IRS reporting rules coming into effect early 2026 may increase compliance burdens for investors. Additionally, fund flows into crypto ETFs are noteworthy—data shows that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust experienced a $2.7 billion outflow in just five weeks.

From a technical analysis perspective, structural risks in the Bitcoin market cannot be ignored. Schiff himself has hinted that Bitcoin might “follow silver’s surge but in the opposite direction,” indicating a possibility of rapid and deep price adjustments.

Market Data and On-Chain Dynamics

Amid conflicting market views, investors can gain clearer insights through actual data. On-chain behavior of Bitcoin offers key clues: the proportion of long-term holders is increasing, while short-term speculative funds are decreasing.

According to Gate’s analysis, in 2026, Bitcoin is more likely to fluctuate within a specific range: a main range between $100,000 and $140,000, with extreme volatility possibly between $80,000 and $160,000.

Data from Gate indicates that as of January 21, 2026, Bitcoin’s market cap reached $1.84 trillion, accounting for 56.42% of the entire cryptocurrency market. This dominance in the digital asset space suggests that Bitcoin’s price in 2026 could become more stable, but also that when trends reverse, the swings could be more pronounced.

Investor Strategies

Given the complex market signals and conflicting expert forecasts, investors may need to adopt more cautious and diversified strategies. Over-reliance on any single viewpoint is unwise; whether Schiff’s bearish warning or institutional optimism, these are just parts of the many voices in the market.

Understanding the maturation of the Bitcoin market is also crucial. As more institutional funds flow in, Bitcoin’s valuation logic is gradually shifting from purely narrative-driven to one that emphasizes long-term value and capital structure. This transition suggests that the traditional four-year cycle model may no longer be fully applicable.

For ordinary investors, 2026 might be better suited for a dollar-cost averaging approach rather than making large bets on tops or bottoms. Maintaining a diversified portfolio, including balancing different asset classes, could be a prudent way to hedge against market uncertainties.

When asked about Bitcoin’s future, a senior crypto community investor commented under Schiff’s tweet: “This isn’t the first, and won’t be the last, ‘warning’.” Another user posted a chart showing Bitcoin’s gains since 2023, exceeding 150%, with the caption: “Define ‘collapse’.” Silver prices ultimately failed to reach the psychological $100 per ounce mark and retreated to the $90 range in late January 2026. Meanwhile, Bitcoin oscillated between $88,000 and $92,000, seemingly waiting for the next narrative to push the market.