Bernstein declares Bitcoin cycle transformation: Bull market bottom has appeared, target prices directly aiming at $150,000 and $1,000,000

Bitcoin’s trading price today fluctuated within the $90,000 to $91,000 range, demonstrating a certain level of market resilience. Although there was a slight pullback in the past 24 hours, a profound analysis from Wall Street is injecting new long-term confidence into the market.

Top global research and brokerage firm Bernstein released a new report, whose core insight overturns traditional market perceptions: the decade-long “four-year halving cycle” for Bitcoin has officially ended.

Cycle Turning Point

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is at a critical crossroads. On January 8, 2026, BTC price will fluctuate within the $90,713 to $91,440 range, with minor adjustments over the past 24 hours. In contrast to the price volatility, the market structure is undergoing profound changes. The driving force behind this change is the sustained buying of institutional funds.

According to Bernstein’s observations, despite a noticeable price correction in the Bitcoin market, the outflow of funds from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is extremely limited, accounting for less than 5% of the total scale. This indicates that the vast majority of institutional investors have not exited due to short-term fluctuations. This “stickiness” of buying is reshaping the market’s price formation mechanism, causing the traditional cyclical patterns dominated by retail sentiment and four-year halving events to gradually become ineffective.

Target Rebuilding

Based on the judgment of a new cycle, Bernstein provides a clear and significantly upward revised forecast for Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. The institution predicts that Bitcoin could reach a price level of $150,000 by the end of 2026. Furthermore, the peak of the current cycle may touch $200,000 in 2027. This is not the end of the story. Bernstein maintains its long-term vision for Bitcoin, expecting a price target of approximately $1,000,000 by 2033. Behind this series of predictions is the analyst’s assessment that Bitcoin is gradually evolving into a “predictable demand source” asset.

As more mature custody infrastructure is established globally, market liquidity improves, and incremental demand is driven by crypto legislation in various countries, Bitcoin’s value foundation is shifting from pure speculation to strategic asset allocation.

Institutional Logic

Bernstein’s analysis is not an isolated view; it reflects a fundamental shift in the current Bitcoin ecosystem—from retail-driven to institution-led.

Traditional Bitcoin price cycles are closely tied to the four-year “halving” events. Halving directly reduces the rate of new Bitcoin supply, creating scarcity shocks that drive prices higher. But this pattern is being rewritten.

Institutional investors enter the market through compliant tools like spot Bitcoin ETFs, with their capital behavior markedly different from retail investors. Pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds engage in long-term, strategic asset allocation rather than short-term trend trading. This sustained and large-scale capital inflow creates a more stable “demand base.” Even during market volatility, retail’s emotional sell-offs are being absorbed by these long-term institutional buyers.

This results in reduced overall market volatility, increased resilience, and ultimately, the traditional four-year cycle pattern being replaced by a more persistent, smoother “extended bull market cycle.”

Market Resonance

The new narrative for Bitcoin does not unfold in a vacuum; it is closely linked to the global macroeconomic environment and innovative trends within the crypto ecosystem. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is a key macro variable. Widespread expectations of a continued rate-cutting cycle and potential balance sheet expansion will create a strong “structural tailwind” for all risk assets, including Bitcoin. Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s price is highly sensitive to the availability of global liquidity, and a loose monetary environment often acts as a catalyst for its large-scale upward movement.

Meanwhile, another trillion-dollar trend within the crypto space—the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA)—also forms the macro backdrop for Bitcoin’s long-term value. By 2026, tokenization is expected to shift from experimental edge cases to core operational strategies for asset managers. Tokenized government bonds, private enterprise credit, and other RWAs are bringing the massive scale of traditional finance into the blockchain world. This process not only demonstrates the practical value of blockchain technology but also expands the application scenarios and capital inflow potential for Bitcoin as the most core value storage and settlement asset within this ecosystem.

Bottom and Direction

Returning to the current technical market outlook, Bitcoin’s price movement appears to be gathering strength for a new cycle. The key technical support level is around $88,500, which has been tested multiple times. For traders, a clear upward breakout signal is if Bitcoin can sustain above $93,000. Achieving this could open the door to higher price ranges.

On-chain data shows a positive signal: the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has fallen to a very low level, about 13.7% of the total supply, one of the lowest since 2018. This usually indicates that selling pressure in circulation is decreasing.

The short-term market direction may still depend on more macroeconomic data. For example, the upcoming U.S. unemployment claims data is viewed by analysts as a potential key catalyst.

Bernstein’s latest analysis paints a picture of Bitcoin transitioning from a cyclical asset to a durable strategic reserve asset. The end of the four-year cycle is not the end of the bull market, but rather the beginning of a more mature and stable bull run. On Gate’s chart, every consolidation around $90,000 could be seen as a key node in the game. As institutional safes gradually replace retail trading accounts as Bitcoin’s main custodians, this code-born asset is carving its rising value coordinates on the books of the global financial system.