11.13

BTC
Yesterday, the idea given to everyone was that the larger scale has not adjusted properly and will still oscillate around the range. After an upward adjustment this week, it hasn't broken the key position and has returned to the lower edge of the range, getting closer to the 100,000 mark. Currently, the focus should be on whether the four-hour level can break the 100,000 mark. If it cannot break, it will oscillate widely between 100,000 and 106,300. The overall thought remains unchanged; this position requires time for a significant rise because the current market liquidity and news environment have limited the volatility of the market. Therefore, in the near term, the focus should be on short-term trading, with opportunities for both long and short positions. During the day, pay attention to whether the smaller level can hold at 102,600. If it cannot hold, it will decline again, with support at 100,425 - 98,500 and resistance at 102,600 - 104,600.

ETH
Ethereum's market is moving similarly to Bitcoin. I don't really know how to analyze the market in the past few days; it just seems to be oscillating within a range. Since the major turning point hasn't arrived yet, in summary, Ethereum is still primarily in a state of fluctuation in the short term. To strengthen, it needs to stabilize above 3580, with support at 3370-3225 and resistance at 3461-3556.

The market will not break through quickly, as there is still some time before the biggest good news next year. This good news is that Powell will be out in June next year, and the Fed chair appointed by Trump will take office and start cutting interest rates.
On one hand, it stimulates BTC, and on the other hand, it stimulates gold. Tether has also been crazily accumulating gold recently.

There are still six months left, and there are many uncertainties in between. A survey shows that about 61% of institutions plan to increase their crypto investment positions in the coming months.

So what other black swans might there be in between?

(1) The plunge in US stocks triggers a crash in the cryptocurrency market.
Recently, the big short sellers in the US stock market are frantically shorting AI giant stocks, causing panic in the stock market. AI stocks in the US, such as Nvidia, Google, Oracle, etc.

(2) War breaks out between Venezuela and the United States.
Chuanzi has attacked someone else's ship for no reason, and now the two countries are starting to draw guns at each other.
Do not rule out the possibility of further escalation of the conflict.