Who is the most favourable information for the crypto market as the Fed chair? Analysis of the candidate list and key timelines.

Author: Yuuki, Deep Tide TechFlow

Current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term will expire in May 2026. Yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen revealed that Trump is likely to announce his nomination for the next Federal Reserve chairman before Christmas. The monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve chairman will greatly influence the pace and endpoint of future interest rate cuts. As the market most sensitive to liquidity and interest rates, the stance of the next Federal Reserve chairman on monetary policy—whether dovish or hawkish—is crucial. This article will overview the policy positions of the currently popular candidates and their potential impact on the crypto industry, the likelihood of their nomination, and key timeframes.

1. Kevin Hassett: The most dovish candidate, economic advisor to Trump (most favorable)

Hassett is the former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and a core economic advisor to Trump, a candidate who can bring Trump's desire for interest rate cuts into the Federal Reserve. He has publicly expressed support for deeper and faster rate cuts to stimulate economic growth; at the same time, his attitude towards the crypto market is friendly, viewing Bitcoin as a tool for hedging against inflation, which may promote a relaxation of regulations on the crypto market. If Hassett is elected as chairman of the Federal Reserve, it would be an absolute boon for the interest rate-sensitive crypto market, as rapid and significant rate cuts would bring about the next liquidity bull market for risk assets.

2. Kevin Warsh: The most hawkish candidate, supports CBDC and opposes decentralization (most bearish)

Wash is a former Federal Reserve governor and a researcher at the Hoover Institution, with a long-standing hawkish stance on monetary policy, favoring interest rate tightening and prioritizing the fight against inflation (and advocating for a reduction in the central bank's balance sheet). If he takes office, it may delay or limit the rapid decline of interest rates, thereby suppressing the valuation and capital inflow of crypto risk assets. At the same time, Wash has publicly supported the U.S. development of a CBDC (central bank digital currency), which is also seen as a negative for the crypto fundamentalism that pursues decentralization and anti-censorship.

3. Christopher Waller: A moderate candidate who supports stablecoins (neutral)

Waller is the current Federal Reserve Governor, with a monetary policy stance of a moderate dove, supporting gradual rate cuts. He has publicly stated that digital assets can serve as a supplementary payment tool and believes that under proper regulation, stablecoins can enhance the status of the dollar. Waller's prudent style may limit the occurrence of significant easing, and if he takes office, the future progression of the interest rate path will require further analysis of the overall composition of the voting committee.

4. Rick Rieder: Neutral to dovish, positive for BTC and other mainstream assets (bullish)

Riedel is the Chief of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, directly overseeing the allocation of trillions of dollars; his monetary stance is neutral to dovish, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve should remain cautious and flexible after reaching neutral interest rates. At the same time, he believes that in an environment where traditional asset correlations are converging, cryptocurrencies have unique hedging and defensive value, referring to Bitcoin as the gold of the 21st century. If he assumes office, it may attract institutional funds to allocate to the crypto market, stabilizing the volatility of the crypto market, which would be beneficial for mainstream crypto assets like BTC.

5. Michelle Bowman: A hawkish candidate who rarely comments on the crypto market (bearish)

Bowman is the current member of the Federal Reserve, and his hawkish stance on monetary policy is comparable to that of Waller, if not more so. He has clearly advocated for maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period amidst the market's general expectation of a rate cut and pressure from the Trump administration, and has repeatedly stated that he does not rule out the possibility of another rate hike; if he takes office, it will undoubtedly constitute a substantial bearish signal for the crypto market and risk assets.

The current likelihood of election for the five candidates mentioned above.

Currently, the event is in the presidential nomination stage. In the prediction market Polymarket, Kevin Hassett is leading with a nomination probability of 52%. Bloomberg exclusively reports that Hassett is the frontrunner; the second place is Christopher Waller with a nomination probability of 22%; third is Kevin Warsh with a nomination probability of 19%; followed by Rick Rieder at 2%; and Michelle Bowman at 1%.

Key time nodes to pay attention to

The transition of the Federal Reserve Chair requires two stages. The first stage is the Trump team's interview and selection of candidates, determining the final nominee, who will be only one person. According to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's statement, Trump will officially announce the nominee before Christmas. If Hassett is confirmed as the nominee, the crypto market is likely to experience a Christmas rally. The second stage involves the nominee being confirmed and submitted for a Senate vote; the Senate is expected to hold hearings in January to February 2026 and conduct committee and full votes in March to April. It is important to note that currently, there is still a 32% probability on Polymarket that Trump will not officially announce the nominee in December.

Summary: Currently, the probability of Hassett being elected is leading, but this has not yet been reflected in bond yields and the prices of risk assets. Continued attention is needed on the progress of this event. In the short term, if Trump confirms the nomination of Hassett before Christmas, the crypto market is likely to welcome a Christmas market; in the long term, the monetary policy stance of the next Federal Reserve chairman will also directly impact the price performance of risk assets over the next four years.