Latest Price and Volatility Range

Chart: https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT

BTC is currently trading at around $116,115, with an intraday high of $118,519 and a low of $116,115. The market is in a consolidation and pullback phase following last week’s new highs. Price action reflects a tug-of-war between the 115k and 120k range, with sentiment generally cautious.

Three Primary Drivers of the Pullback

• Macro and Interest Rate Expectations: The latest inflation and PPI figures remain elevated, diminishing bets on Federal Reserve easing this year. Risk-on assets have come under pressure, and BTC has followed suit.
• Technical and Market Rhythm: After BTC set a new all-time high near 124k on August 14, profit-taking and short-term selling from long positions led to increased sell pressure.
• Capital Flows and Sentiment: During this high-level consolidation, institutional and quantitative funds have moved to control risk exposure. Deleveraging in futures and perpetual futures contracts has amplified volatility.

Key Support and Resistance

• Primary support: 115k (psychological round number and recent cluster of lows). If this level breaks, traders should watch for secondary support in the 112k–113k zone.
• Primary resistance: 120k (psychological round number and previous high and retracement level). A decisive break above could allow for a retest of 124k.
• Technical indicators: If the RSI returns to the 40–50 midpoint and stabilizes, combined with convergence of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, the likelihood of a consolidation bottom increases. If RSI drops below 40, watch for another downward move.

Three Market Pathways (Next 1–4 Weeks)

• Conservative scenario (moderate probability): Macro data stays elevated, with the dollar and interest rates rising. BTC tests support between the 112k and 115k range repeatedly. If this range fails, stronger support is found in the 108k–110k range.
• Neutral scenario (higher probability): Macro headwinds and liquidity conditions largely offset each other, keeping BTC in the 115k–121k range as the market awaits catalysts like Jackson Hole or employment data.
• Optimistic scenario (low-to-moderate probability): Positive catalysts revive risk appetite, pushing BTC above 120k to challenge 124k. With sustained volume and momentum, targets could reach the 130k–135k range.

Beginner’s Trading and Risk Management Checklist

• Stagger entries: Limit each trade to no more than 10–20% of total capital, by layering positions in the 115k–118k range.
• Maintain stop-loss discipline: For short-term trades, set stop-losses below 114.8k or their personal risk tolerance; take profits incrementally at 120k and 121k.
• Prioritize low leverage or spot trading: Avoid using high leverage near key levels.
• Track market catalysts: It is important to monitor volatility risks around inflation releases, jobs data, Jackson Hole comments, and related events.