Daily News | BTC and ETH value drop due to Pepe Memecoin and congestion, NFTs raise transaction fees, Fed rate cuts uncertain
Crypto Daily Digest: Bitcoin Transaction Fees Soar Amid Crypto Market Turmoil Caused by Pepe and Ordinals
Bitcoin and Ether, two of the largest cryptocurrencies, both experienced a decline in value recently. BTC fell 3.2% to around $27,600, while ETH fell 1.9% to around $1,845. The decline in value may be due to rising interest in Pepe, a frog-themed memecoin, and congestion issues on Binance, which temporarily suspended Bitcoin withdrawals over the weekend. The overall crypto market cap. was down as much as 4.5% before settling at around -2.5%.
The congestion on the Bitcoin network is due to the popularity of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) created using the Ordinals protocol, which has led to high fees and longer transaction wait times. Bitcoin educator and founder of Bitcoin for Fairness, Anita Posch, expressed concerns on Twitter about high fees and how they impact users in Africa. Binance has temporarily halted Bitcoin withdrawals due to a fee miscalculation.
Despite the short-term fluctuations, BTC is increasingly viewed as a “buy-and-hold asset” based on on-chain data. Bitcoin miners are currently being paid more to process transactions on the blockchain than they are for creating new Bitcoin, which could be a positive development for the industry. The emergence of NFTs on the blockchain has contributed to this trend. Some experts are considering the possibility of replacing the subsidy with transaction fees. The average Bitcoin transaction fee increased by over 560% in May to $19.20.
Total Crypto Market Cap. $1.117T (+0.19%) - Neutral Outlook
Yesterday’s significant decline in price has resulted in a retesting of a previous selling climax area around $1.117T - $1.110T, which suggests a minor weakness in the market. While it is possible that the price may drop further to the $1.095T - $1.087T range, it is equally likely that the current price range is part of a major accumulation phase before the price retraces to retest the $1.136T - $1.143T area. Our previous prediction of a price slump on BTC last week demonstrates the credibility of Wyckoff logic. Going forward, we anticipate a prolonged accumulation period, which could lead to another slump to as low as $1.082T - $1.07T. This development will be positive for the entire crypto market as the longer the accumulation phase, the higher the rise we can expect from the breakout.
Macro: US Equities Stagnate, Mixed Results in Asian Markets, Goldman Sachs and Hedge Funds at Odds on Fed Rate Cuts
In the US, equities experienced minimal gains on Monday, with the S&P 500 remaining steady after a sharp increase on Friday. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 rose slightly with the help of AI-capable chipmakers AMD and Nvidia. Treasury yields fell as investors considered the potential for a shift in Federal Reserve rates following a loan demand survey indicating credit tightening. The dollar strengthened after the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey from the Federal Reserve showed signs of credit market tightening, and Apple launched a $5.25 billion sale of corporate bonds. However, Paypal fell 4% in postmarket trading after a lower-than-expected second-quarter outlook.
In Asia, stock markets had mixed results in early trading. There were gains in Japan and falls in South Korea and Australia. The markets were waiting for China’s trade data to gauge the country’s economic recovery. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edged lower in Asia. The US dollar rose for a second day of gains, while Treasury yields were little changed in early Asian trade. Investors are awaiting the US consumer-inflation data and President Joe Biden’s discussion with congressional leaders regarding the debt-ceiling issue. The Australian government is set to announce its first budget surplus since 2008. Oil prices edged lower, and gold was little changed.
In financial news, Goldman Sachs has advised its customers that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be as aggressive in cutting rates this year as the market is predicting. Swap contracts continue to be priced for a policy rate around 70 basis points lower than the current rate by year-end. Goldman Sachs strategists have recommended paying the December rate, as they anticipate it will rise. In contrast, hedge funds are increasing their aggregate short position, indicating that they expect the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
The latest futures positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reveals that positioning around policy pricing for this year has entered a crucial period this week, with April inflation gauges expected to be released on Wednesday and Thursday. This release of data may impact how the market prices policy for the year.
