January Fed meeting outcomes are essentially predetermined at this point.

Look at the Polymarket odds: rate cut probability sitting at roughly 4%, with the remainder split between holding steady. That's your market consensus right there.

What's the actual story? Three things are blocking any pivot:

**Inflation hasn't cooled enough.** The data doesn't scream urgency yet.

**Growth still looks resilient.** Economic momentum isn't screaming for emergency cuts.

**The Fed has no incentive to jump the gun.** They're comfortable staying put.

The numbers don't lie—institutional money isn't betting on action, and neither should you be.