Behind the surge in ADA futures positions: Spot ETF expectations drive traders' positioning

【Crypto World】In the past 24 hours, Cardano’s futures positions have expanded rapidly, with open interest increasing by 1.29%, reaching a total of 1.99 billion ADA, which is approximately $817 million at the current price.

An important catalyst behind this rally is the market betting on whether the Grayscale spot ADA ETF will receive regulatory approval. Although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has not yet given a final response, it is expected that a conclusion will not be reached until early 2026, but traders are already starting to position themselves in anticipation of a potential rally.

Data from exchanges show that the futures market activity on major platforms is heating up. Among them, a leading exchange’s ADA futures position share is the highest at 25.18% (equivalent to 502 million ADA, valued at $206 million).

Interestingly, despite the increase in open interest, the price of ADA has slightly declined by 1.56%, currently trading at $0.4127. The 24-hour trading volume has also shrunk by 7.5% to $847 million. However, from a technical perspective, the outlook is not pessimistic—both the golden cross and Bollinger Bands indicators are signaling upward momentum.

Some analysts remain optimistic about the future, noting that if ADA’s performance can replicate XRP’s recent behavior, a target of $0.60 is not impossible. Of course, this prediction is based on the assumption that the ETF approval will go through.