Some analysts say that the 4-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin has come to an end, and that we may now enter a chaotic bear and bull cycle. I think it's a bit early to draw this conclusion (although I did mention earlier in 2021 that there might be changes after the fourth Halving). Although this bull market in the current Halving cycle is much dimmer compared to the 2017 bull market in the second cycle and the 2021 bull market in the third cycle, or rather, the real bull market has not appeared yet, and the performance of alts is far from the previous two cycles, this is not enough to indicate that the rules of the larger cycle have been broken.

This round of change is mainly due to changes in the underlying and upper logic of the market. After this round of bear market, the approval of bitcoin ETF promoted a 3-7w swing rise, and after the US election Trump won, the main force bet to pull to more than 100,000, this round is a bull market belonging to institutions. Retail investors are basically still in the market logic of the last round, and they generally believe that if Bitcoin can rise to more than 100,000, altcoins will definitely rise many times, because everyone's reference is that a lot of hundred-fold coins, thousand-fold coins and 10,000-fold coins were born in the mad cow of 2020-2021. And this round of altcoins basically stayed at the bottom, mainly because the impact of the epidemic has changed the world's economic order, many project parties and investors have shrunk or gone bankrupt in this shock, and even in the post-epidemic era, they have not been well elastic, and many project parties have indiscriminately issued coins and run away after harvesting, which has destroyed the liquidity of the market to a certain extent. In the first two years of inflation and contraction, the new cash flow was very limited, and it was difficult to push the token price up, and it was impossible to keep up with the rise of BTC.
This round is a bull run for Bitcoin alone. The best market for altcoins was during the bear-bull transition period from the year before last to last year, which has already become history. Therefore, some say that a bull run without altcoins is not a real bull run, which is somewhat biased. In the case of limited market funds, only Bitcoin is the sole leader and the market consensus. As long as it does not enter a deep bear market within this year, it cannot be considered that the four-year cycle rule has been broken.
In the future, when the price of Bitcoin reaches above 150,000, the amount of capital required to enter the market will become increasingly large, and the blood of altcoins will be further drained. At that time, the performance of old altcoins will only become increasingly lackluster. Only when the price of Bitcoin retraces to below 40,000 during the next deep bear market will altcoins welcome the next major V-shaped reversal.