This week, market sentiment is poor, and the Federal Reserve's decision is inconsistent with market expectations. Although it has reduced the balance sheet, it is not favourable information; it only extends the balance sheet reduction timeline, which investors are not buying into. Previously, the market expected three interest rate cuts this year, but it has now changed back to two, which is disappointing. Although Powell does not acknowledge a recession in the US economy, he also indicates that economic growth is slowing.

Next week, attention should be paid to the core PCE data and the University of Michigan inflation indicators, as market expectations are poor. On April 2, the U.S. reciprocal tariffs will begin, and the House Financial Services Committee will review the stablecoin bill, which is a signal of the U.S. entering the cryptocurrency market.

Currently, the market accepts the reality that inflation will fluctuate, tariffs may exacerbate inflation, and the U.S. economy may face a downturn. From a macro sentiment and liquidity perspective, the market does not have the conditions for a reversal, only a rebound.

This year in the cryptocurrency market, the consensus is that the peak will be in the fourth quarter. If the Federal Reserve (FED) lowers interest rates in June or July, the third quarter can be a good time to buy on dips. The first half of the year will mainly be characterized by fluctuations, making it suitable for shorting on highs, and long-term shorts can be arranged before the peak in the fourth quarter.

Some KOLs claim that 2026 is a bull market, which is a wrong judgment; Bitcoin will only halve in the first half of 2028, with a bear-bull transition in 2027, and 2026 will be a deep bear market.

The current market is in a stage of consolidation, turnover, and long-short competition, with no one-sided trend. The strategy is mainly to short on rallies, with some support for long positions at low points. Pay attention to macroeconomic data and market sentiment, and operate flexibly. #BTC