An important post about what is happening now in the market, macro and trade war?

1. Inflation data is moving in the right direction, but is this really "good" news for the stock market?

2. In February 2025, CPI and PPI, both total and baseline, declined more than expected.

3. This was the first serious economic report in the context of the trade war during the Trump presidency.

4. Immediately afterward, Trump wrote, "Egg prices have fallen, oil has fallen, interest rates have fallen," effectively applauding his economic decision.

5. But the market reacted very weakly, although earlier such data caused a rapid growth of the S&P 500. In particular, BTC immediately gave an impetus and grew after inflation declined for several weeks.

6. Why do we have a different reaction now? Most likely, because this data gives Trump a reason to continue doing what he is already doing (торгова війна).

7. If inflation were to accelerate again, Trump would face criticism over the impact of his tariffs and policies on prices.

8. But now the trade war may continue while Trump says he is lowering inflation, interest rates and trade deficits.

9. And, probably, that is why stock markets are not growing now after the fall, even despite the best inflation data in recent months. In the context of a trade war, investors simply do not allow themselves to turn on the "RISK ON" mode, because no one understands how it will end and what may happen tomorrow. And the big player is used to acting as carefully as possible in conditions of uncertainty, so they do not allow themselves unnecessary risks now.

10. Finally, it becomes clear that Trump understands that an economic downturn or even a recession is the fastest "way" to curb inflation.