11 March 2025

The crypto market is once again at a crossroads filled with uncertainty. Bitcoin (BTC), as the primary barometer of the digital currency ecosystem, has fallen below $80,000 for the second time in the last three weeks, triggering a wave of concern among investors. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a metric often used as a reflection of market sentiment, is now at 24 in the 'extreme fear' zone last seen in the dark days of the 2022 bear market. Fears of a global recession, uncertain economic policies, and capital outflows from risky assets are further clouding the atmosphere. The question now is: Has the crypto market officially entered the bear market (bear market)? And if so, are we approaching the local low?
The crypto market, although relatively young, shows a familiar pattern: soaring euphoria followed by brutal corrections. Let's dissect the current situation and find out what might lie ahead.
Bear Market or Normal Correction?
The classic definition of a bear market is a decline in asset prices by 20% or more from their peak. Bitcoin, which reached a peak of $107,000 in January 2025, is now trading around $77,800 on March 11, 2025, a drop of about 27%. Technically, this already qualifies as a bear market. However, the crypto market does not always follow traditional Wall Street rules. Its extreme volatility often makes a 20-30% decline feel like a "routine correction" for crypto veterans.
However, there are deeper signs supporting the bearish market narrative. First, the Fear & Greed Index at 24 indicates that investors are in panic mode. This sentiment is exacerbated by the liquidation of $161 million worth of long positions in the last four hours, according to current market data. Second, institutional capital outflows from digital assets have reached $876 million in the last four weeks, according to the latest report. Total assets managed in crypto funds have now shrunk to $142 billion, the lowest since November 2024. Third, US economic policies, including new tariff threats from the Trump administration against Canada, Mexico, and China, have triggered a "risk-off" sentiment that has pressured both crypto and stocks.
However, I am not sure if we are already in the midst of a prolonged bear market like 2018 or 2022. The current crypto market has a stronger foundation: more mature institutional adoption, stronger infrastructure, and Bitcoin's role as an "inflation hedge" amidst global economic instability. This downturn may be more of a "cleansing" from the post-US 2024 election euphoria, when the greed index briefly surged to 92, rather than the beginning of total destruction.
Is This the Local Low Point?
Predicting the bottom point in the crypto market is like trying to catch a falling knife, risky and speculative. However, there are several indicators that we can rely on. First, market liquidity, measured through M2 money supply, is starting to show signs of recovery after reaching a low point a few months ago. Analysts often mention that the price movement of Bitcoin correlates with global liquidity, and a rebound in M2 could act as a catalyst for recovery. Second, Bitcoin's technical support level at $77,000 seems to hold for now, despite persistent selling pressure. If this level breaks, $70,000 will be the next test, and it could mark the local bottom if sentiment continues to worsen.
I also noticed the behavior of short-term holders (STH). On-chain data shows that they have not sold in large quantities, with outflow from exchanges only recording 157 BTC in the last 24 hours. This is different from the drastic drops in the past, where STH panic usually triggers massive selling. The lack of large-scale selling waves could be a signal that the market has not fully given up and that the bottom may be near.
When will I buy?
As an investor, I believe in the old saying: "Buy when there is blood in the streets." In the context of crypto, this means looking for opportunities when fear reaches its peak just when most people are running away from the market. With the Fear & Greed Index at 24, we are already in that zone.
For Bitcoin, I will consider entering the range of $70,000-$72,000 if the price continues to drop. This level is not only a strong technical support, but also a psychological point that can trigger buying action from long-term investors. If BTC stays above $77,000 in the next few days, I might start building a small position gradually, with a full accumulation target below $75,000. This strategy combines patience with readiness to take advantage of volatility.
However, I will not rush. The crypto market often provides a "false bottom" before falling further. If the new Trump tariffs are truly implemented next week and trigger a mini-recession, we could see BTC retesting the $60,000 area last touched in early 2024.
Coins in My Watchlist for 2025
Besides Bitcoin, there are several coins that I am monitoring for investment opportunities amid this turmoil. Here is the list:
Ethereum (ETH) - Currently trading at $1,860, ETH has fallen harder than BTC (down 24% in a week). However, the upcoming Pectra upgrade to be launched on the Sepolia testnet and the potential rebound from Ethereum ETF sentiment make it attractive. I will buy below $1,800.
Solana (SOL) - Known as the "Ethereum killer," Solana remains my favorite due to its rapidly growing DeFi and NFT ecosystem. With the current price below $150, I would consider entering at $120-$130.
Jito (JTO) - This token caught my attention because the Total Value Locked (TVL) on its platform continues to increase despite the price drop. This indicates solid user confidence. Buy target: below $2.
Chainlink (LINK) - With its crucial role in providing oracle data for blockchain, LINK is a safe long-term bet in the bear market. I will buy in the range of $10-$12.
Dogecoin (DOGE) - Although volatile, DOGE often rebounds quickly when market sentiment improves, especially if there is a catalyst from figures like Elon Musk. Buying target: below $0.15.
Conclusion: Patient, But Ready to Act
Has the crypto market entered a bear market? Technically, yes, but this may not be the end of the story. With a stronger foundation compared to previous cycles, I see this decline as an opportunity for smart investors to prepare their positions. The local bottom may be in sight, but time will be the key. For me, the best strategy is to wait for confirmation of support while preparing to enter at lower levels.
The crypto market is always full of drama and that's what makes it so interesting. As I've learned: When everyone is panicking, that's the time to stay calm and look for opportunities. What do you think? Would you buy now, or wait longer? Share your views in the comments section!
#Has the Crypto Market Entered a Bear Market?