JPMorgan Chase raises US recession odds to 40%

[JPMorgan Chase raises the probability of a U.S. recession to 40%] Economists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan Chase raised the risk of a U.S. recession this year to 40% from 30% in early 2025. “Due to the extreme policies of the United States, we believe that the risk of the United States falling into a recession this year is high,” the analysts wrote. "Earlier, it was reported that Morgan Stanley economists cut their US economic growth forecasts last week and raised their inflation forecasts. The bank forecasts that US GDP growth will be only 1.5% in 2025 and will fall to 1.2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists also raised the probability of a 12-month recession from 15% to 20%.