[The current round of the bull market in the currency circle may have ended]

2025.3.10 $83,216/BTC
A bull market in any capital market requires a constant inflow of incremental capital to sustain it. However, at present, all sources of incremental funds in the cryptocurrency circle have dried up:
1. Altcoins have crashed. The current round of the cryptocurrency bull market did not produce new altcoin hotspots and successfully attracted over-the-counter incremental funds to enter the market, and not even a decent altcoin rotation appeared. The traditional altcoin speculation, which attracts incremental funds into the cryptocurrency circle and eventually flows into Bitcoin, is gone.
2. The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has changed from a net inflow in the past to a continuous net outflow. In the past month, at 10:30 p.m. Beijing time on each U.S. stock trading day, Bitcoin plummeted almost on time, and a big reason is that as soon as the U.S. stock market opened, the Bitcoin spot ETF of the U.S. stock market began to ship, bringing the entire currency circle to collapse. The U.S. stock market rebounded after closing, and the U.S. stock market began to ship as soon as it opened the next night, bringing the market crash.
3. Iron Rooster Trump is not pulling a dime. A big factor in this bull market in the currency circle is Trump's campaign announcement that he will include bitcoin in the reserve assets of the US government. Market participants are thinking that the U.S. government is going to pay for Bitcoin for us to take over! But in fact, Trump has made a big bubble, but he is only talking nicely, and he is actually not ready to spend a dime to buy additional bitcoins to increase the number of reserves. So this last thought of supporting the bull market has been shattered.
4. The U.S. tariffs on the world have lowered the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts. This round of crypto bull market began in December 2022, when U.S. inflation peaked and began to decline, and the market predicted that the Federal Reserve would start to continue to cut interest rates, which was good for all capital markets, thus ending the previous bear market that had lasted for a year. However, with the recent increase in global tariffs after Trump took office, the market predicts that this will lead to rising prices and rising inflation in the United States, and the Fed's pace of interest rate cuts will be forced to be interrupted, and even in extreme cases, there is a possibility of interest rate hikes. This had a huge impact on the U.S. stock market and the currency circle, and the Nasdaq fell below the 120-day line and the 200-day line in a row, which also led to a sharp decline in the currency circle.
Based on the above factors, it is more likely that the current round of bull market in the currency circle has ended. A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall, and it is the best choice to follow the trend. Of course, in the long run, Bitcoin is still in the process of expanding consensus and continuous growth of participants, but most of the dividends should have been released. The cycle is still the same, follow the trend.