#2025你关注哪些赛道？ coin circle may face a harsh winter

The main factor affecting the price of Bitcoin is the risk preference of the US stock market.
From a historical perspective, the composition of the coin price in the bull markets of 2014, 2017, 2021, and 2024 is completely different. In 2014, ASIC led to Bitcoin gradually expanding to larger retail investors beyond geeks, while ICOs and other factors in 2017 made Bitcoin almost universally known. Both rounds of participants are still retail investors.
The price of coin is determined by two aspects: mining cost and market sentiment, both of which are based on the halving cycle specified in the Bitcoin white paper. According to the halving cycle chart, the impact of the newly added supply of Bitcoin mining output on the circulation is significant at the beginning of the halving. Moreover, this market is almost unaffected by other markets. However, in 21 and 24 years, everything changed.

In 21 and 24, in terms of the cost of mining coin, as more and more coins have been mined, the impact of halving on the circulation has become smaller and smaller. So the ability of halving events to affect prices through supply is also decreasing. At the same time, newcomers in the coin circle in this stage have changed from retail investors to Wall Street, which directly strengthens the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and other financial assets.
At the end of 2024, the cost of mining a bitcoin is about $30,000, and the price of a bitcoin is $100,000. There is still a vast space for growth beyond $100,000. The part above $30,000 is almost entirely due to the increased risk appetite caused by the growth of the US stock market (AI speculation, expected interest rate cuts, Trump's trade, etc.), which can be evidenced by the correlation between Nasdaq and bitcoin.

The price of coin, which was determined by the white paper and community in 2014 and 2017, has now been largely determined by Wall Street in 2021. This change not only signifies a possible break in the four-year bull market cycle but also suggests that Bitcoin is likely to face major setbacks due to excessive investment in US AI, the precarious US national debt, Wall Street's readiness to retaliate against Trump, and the immense pressure on the US stock market.
The bottleneck of blockchain technology in zone 2 is difficult to break through.
As a technology, blockchain not only experiences halving in each bull cycle, but also the development of technology is an important direction of market sentiment. In 2014, it was ASIC, in 2017, it was ICO, and in 2021, it was a technological explosion (DeFi, NFT, GameFi, Filecoin, etc.). What about 2024? Inscriptions or AI?

Inscriptions have nothing to say. But depin is just a pseudo-demand like file, and a truly stable and profitable demand cannot tolerate the large fluctuations in computing power from bull to bear. Most importantly, the essence of blockchain is to sacrifice "cost" for "security" to a great extent. This proportion of sacrifice cost can be considered innovative in the financial aspect, but what about storage and AI. Can you imagine checking the generated results 20 times before sending them to the user?

In terms of the development context of technology, the development of blockchain technology has encountered a significant bottleneck. The large outflow of talent in this industry in the past two years also proves this fact. Another piece of evidence is that the previous rounds started to rise due to the exhaustion of market momentum, and each rise was immediately pulled back. What about this round? It's only momentum, with almost no technology.

Whether it's the lackluster technology or the market's cautious attitude towards US stock risk preference. It indicates that this round of bull market for Bitcoin lacks a stable foundation and could collapse at any time.
Maybe the lack of interest rate cuts in December and Trump's inauguration are turning points.