#十月上涨行情能如期而至吗？ Entering late September to October, the entire market is shrouded in a bearish sentiment, and investors are beginning to feel despair, as if the Bear Market is imminent. On October 31, the Central Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates by 0.25% again, which may continue to shake BTC downward. In addition, the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate meeting will be held on November 6-7, as September is the fiscal year settlement and the third quarter settlement in the United States. If various economic indicators in the U.S. show improvement in September and October, the probability of a rate hike at this meeting will increase. Historical data shows that the stock market has frequent technical pullbacks and adjustments in September and October, often experiencing Black Swan Events, making October a difficult period for investors.

However, the market situation in November and December may improve. With the dust settling from the US election, the overall economy is expected to develop positively, and the Bull Market in US stocks is expected to continue for 1-2 years. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs expect a US economic recession in 2025, with the probability dropping from the previous 30% to 20%, and possibly further decreasing to 15%. In this scenario, the market data of the entire cryptocurrency market is expected to start pumping again. Based on cyclical analysis, about 4-7 weeks later, the technical aspect will gradually digest short positions and shift towards long positions. #币圈观察员