#铸造交易HMSTR PreToken，提前锁定空投收益 Over the weekend, the market traded in a narrow range. BTC briefly tested the 52000 support level on Saturday, then rebounded to 54000 and consolidated around that level on Sunday morning. Pay attention to this level, as it is similar to the position after the automatic rebound from the Long Wick Candle on 8/5. In just over a month, there have been repeated attempts to test the 55000 level.

Where does the support in the midst of BTC pessimism come from? Is 49000 a deterministic bottom?
As for the current market situation, I think what everyone is more concerned about is where there will be further support for the continued decline.
I looked at the situation of the moving averages MA and EMA. From the 7-day to the highest 200-day moving average, there are not many effective supports below. If we look at the monthly chart, the most critical support is at 44,000. This position can be said to be a very pessimistic position.
I checked the market data again. The 3-day MA120 has reached around 52,700, and currently the most intuitive and effective support is at this level. In addition to support, what everyone is more concerned about is whether the previous low of 49,000 on the daily candlestick is a definitive bottom, which is very important for the current trend.
If so, then this decline can stabilize and rebound above 49,000, oscillate, rebound, and we will basically welcome a better structured stable trend. If not, if 49,000 breaks and the decline expands, there is a lack of effective major support below, then we really have to look at faith.
Personally, my expectations are not optimistic for the moment.
1. Currently, there is no effective data or Favourable Information to drive long positions rebound or reverse the price. The mainstream narrative is interest rate cut, but it is ineffective. A 25 basis point interest rate cut is also ineffective. Only a 50 basis point interest rate cut will have an economic driving effect under the premise of economic stability, but it may not reverse the market trend.
2, the short-term price continues to fluctuate and fall, although it has temporarily stopped falling, but the hourly level, including the daily and weekly moving averages, has started to move down, and there is no divergence situation, the price may get closer and closer to the 49,000 point.
And at the moment, the sensitive period before and after the rate cut, especially after the rate cut, the market may be overly sensitive to economic data, especially bad data. In this tense atmosphere, the buffer zone at 49,000 is clearly not enough.
So, I think the market may not be too optimistic next week, unless it can reverse the decline, pump the fluctuation, and provide enough buffer zone for 49,000, otherwise, once the interest rate cut, there is a high possibility of directly breaking through the position of 49,000.
Currently, we need to determine whether the 52,700 level of the 3-day line becomes an effective support, whether it can rebound, and whether it can effectively stimulate buying volume. If the support at this level is insufficient, then it is really dangerous near 49,000. Of course, being not optimistic does not mean that everyone should be pessimistic, we should take one step at a time and not be overly bearish, which is meaningless and can only consume our own mental energy.