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Today, gold has broken through its historical high, and the three major US stock indexes have all opened higher and risen. The crypto world is also experiencing a comprehensive surge. Everything is so unusual. Why do all USD assets seem to be stimulated and injected with chicken blood?
This points to a very unusual thing, that is, overnight, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed suddenly increased to 50 basis points. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut last night, which was less than 20% before, has increased to 49% today. What happened overnight that changed the Fed's view?
A series of blog posts by Nick, a journalist from The Wall Street Journal, known as the microphone of the Federal Reserve, mentioned that the Fed is now in a dilemma of whether to cut 25 or 50 basis points and is in a deadlock.
First, in his first article, he said that the Fed now prefers to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which is exactly the same as the previous market forecast. But then in his second article, the tone was completely different. He quoted a well-known figure in the market, a famous adviser around Powell. He provided Powell with a suggestion and said that since the market predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year, why not start with a 50 basis point cut? This will make the US economy recover faster.
So what the market was worried about before was nothing more than 50 basis points will make people think that the US economy is in recession. Powell, as long as you come out by yourself and use your mouth to dispel the market's doubts, that's enough. Then the number three figure of the former Federal Reserve, and the president of the New York Federal Reserve, Dudley, came out and made a public speech, supporting a 50 basis point rate cut.
catch the bottom。露娜,BOME DOGS 坚持到年底。