#铸造交易HMSTR PreToken，提前锁定空投收益 At the weekend, the market traded sideways at a low level. BTC once tested the 52000 level on Saturday and then rebounded to 54000, trading around the 54000 level on Sunday morning. Pay attention to this level, it's similar to the position after the automatic Rebound of Long Wick Candle on 8/5. In just over a month, there have been repeated tests of the 55000 level.

Where does the support in BTC's pessimism come from? Is 49000 a definite bottom?
In the current market situation, I think everyone is more concerned about where there is still support for further decline.
I looked at the situation of the moving averages MA and EMA. From the 7-day to the highest 200-day moving average, there are not many effective supports below. If we look at the monthly chart, the most critical support is at 44,000. This position can be said to be a very pessimistic position.
I checked the market data again, and the 3-day MA120 has reached around 52,700. Currently, the most obvious and effective support is at this level. In addition to support, what everyone is more concerned about is whether the previous low of 49,000 on the daily candlestick is a confirmed bottom, which is very important for the current trend.
If so, the current decline can be stopped above 49,000, oscillation, Rebound, then we will basically usher in a better structural stable trend. If not, if 49,000 is broken, the decline expands, and there is a lack of effective major support below, then we really have to look at faith.
Personally, my expectations are not optimistic for the moment.
1. Currently, there is no effective data or Favourable Information to drive longsRebound or reverse the price. The mainstream narrative is that interest rate cuts are ineffective, and interest rate cuts of 25 basis points are also ineffective. Only under the premise of a stable economy, a 50 basis point rate cut will have an economic driving effect, but it may not reverse the market.
2, the short-term price continues to oscillate and fall, although it has temporarily stopped falling, but the hourly level including the daily and weekly moving averages has started to move down, and there is no divergence situation, so the price may get closer and closer to the 49,000 point.
And at the moment of the sensitive period before and after the interest rate cut, especially after the interest rate cut, the market may be overly sensitive to economic data, especially bad data. In this tense atmosphere, the buffer zone of 49,000 is clearly not enough.
So, I think the market outlook next week may not be too optimistic, unless the bearish trend can be reversed, pumped up with fluctuations, and provide enough buffer zone for 49,000. Otherwise, once the interest rate is cut, a larger fluctuation is likely to directly break through the position of 49,000.
At present, we need to first determine whether the 52,700 at the 3-day line level has become an effective support, whether it can rebound, and whether it can effectively stimulate buying volume. If the support at this position is insufficient, then around 49,000 is really dangerous. Of course, not being optimistic does not mean that everyone should be pessimistic. Take one step at a time and don't look at 20,000 from the perspective of 50,000. This kind of overly pessimistic and bearish view is meaningless and can only consume one's own mental energy.