Understanding market sentiment changes (buying early) is a very important aspect in macroeconomics.

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-Good news is good news, bad news is bad news (normal situation market.
Market expectations are in line with policy expectations, and future expectations have not changed.
Example: The market expects a 50 basis point increase in interest rates, and the actual increase is also 50 basis points.

- The bad news is good news, and the good news is bad news (market expectations and
Policy expectations are contrary to future expectations.
Example: The unemployment rate increases (bad news), the probability of interest rate hike decreases (good news), the non-farm data is strong (good news), and the probability of further interest rate hikes increases (bad news).

- The good news is good news, and the bad news is also good news (the market has improved)
After the previous decline, unfavorable information is exhausted)
For example, the market experienced a big dump on the 618 event in 2022, followed by a rebound in the market. In June, the CPI reached a high of 9.1% (bad news), but it indicates that inflation has peaked (good news).

- The good news is bad news, and the bad news is also bad news (the market has risen)
After the rise, all the favorable information has been released)
For example, inflation is high, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by only 25 basis points in March 2022.
After rebound, it continued to fall.

Besides these, another important aspect of trading expectations is the advance prediction
The prediction of the impact time and impact magnitude on the event.

#目前应该抄底还是继续等待？你的看法是？