Research: Polymarket is led by approximately 3% of accounts in price discovery and earns over 30% of the profits, while about 67% of accounts bear all the losses.

On April 27, news, a paper by researchers from London Business School and Yale University analyzed all trades on Polymarket from 2023 to 2025, finding that about 3% of accounts generated most of the price discovery on the platform. The study covered 1.72 million accounts, 210,322 markets, and approximately $13.76 billion in trading volume. The paper states that only 3.14% of accounts can be classified as “expert winners,” meaning their order flow consistently predicted short-term price fluctuations and final outcomes. These accounts, along with market makers, account for less than 3.5% of all accounts but captured over 30% of all profits. Accounts classified as unlucky or technically poor losers make up 67% of the total, bearing all of the platform’s total losses.
Regarding suspected insider trading, the authors flagged 1,950 accounts that opened shortly before a single event and remained dormant after the event settlement. These accounts moved approximately 7 to 12 times the price per dollar compared to skilled traders but failed to improve overall accuracy due to over-concentration on isolated events. The paper includes a case study focusing on three accounts opened between December 27 and January 3, which bet on Maduro’s ouster before the disclosure of U.S. military actions, earning over $630k. This scenario aligns with the first insider trading lawsuit involving event contracts filed by the U.S. CFTC on Thursday, accusing U.S. Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke of trading based on confidential information prior to a raid.