ETF has experienced net inflows for 6 consecutive days: Will Bitcoin initiate an $80k short squeeze battle?

Author: Mahe, Foresight News

On April 23, Bitcoin was trading around $78k, having broken above $79k yesterday, reaching a new high since February this year. ETH remains oscillating around $2,400, with some altcoins surging significantly.

According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation of open contracts across the network was $462 million, with short positions liquidated at $353 million. The latest data from CMC shows that the market fear and greed index has risen back to 60, maintaining a neutral sentiment.

Global risk assets continue their rebound. The US stock market hit new highs again yesterday: the S&P 500 closed at 7,137.90 points, up 1.05% for the day; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,657.57 points, up 1.64%, hitting a new record high; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,490.03 points, up 340.65 points or 0.69%. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) stabilized near 98.61, with slight fluctuations from the previous day.

Trump announced extension of ceasefire on Wednesday

Trump announced on Wednesday that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement would be extended by 3 to 5 days, coupled with strong Q1 corporate earnings, allowing US stocks to quickly recover from the previous two days of consecutive declines.

On Wednesday, the S&P and Nasdaq reached new highs, with chip stocks rising for the sixteenth consecutive day, while oil prices surged in tandem, showing a divergence from market optimism.

Trump said the extension was at Pakistan’s mediation request, and that talks between the US and Iran could restart as early as Friday, but Iran later denied any negotiations scheduled for Friday.

The Iranian president expressed “welcome for dialogue and agreements,” but also criticized Trump for “contradictory words and actions”; Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said that without the lifting of sanctions, a comprehensive ceasefire cannot be achieved.

Oil prices surged sharply on Wednesday, continuing their rise for the third consecutive day this week, with WTI crude rebounding to pre-breakup levels, and Brent crude approaching $102.

The three major US stock indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 reaching a new high, and the Nasdaq hitting a record high, led by technology stocks. The S&P 500’s tech sector rose about 2%, making it the best performer among 11 sectors.

Additionally, according to the latest data from Polymarket, the market’s probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates once this year has risen to 30%.

As expectations for easing tensions in the Middle East increase, the safe-haven attribute of the US dollar has significantly weakened. Coupled with market bets on a rate cut by the Fed within the year, global funds are rapidly withdrawing from dollar assets. Data shows that the dollar index has fallen about 2.3% since the high at the end of March, possibly marking the worst monthly performance since August last year.

Wall Street institutions generally believe that this round of dollar weakness is driven by a “diminishing risk premium + shifting policy expectations.” JPMorgan has resumed short positions on the dollar and turned bullish on risk currencies like the Australian dollar; Bank of New York Mellon also pointed out that emerging market currencies are rebounding across the board, reflecting a significant increase in global risk appetite.

BTC spot ETF sees six consecutive days of net inflows

Regarding BTC spot ETFs, there have been six consecutive days of net inflows. From April 14 to 21, the daily net inflow of ETFs was consistently positive.

Among these, the net inflow on April 17 reached as high as $663.91 million, a recent high; on April 14 and 20, net inflows were $411.5 million and $238.37 million respectively; April 15 contributed $186 million.

On the other hand, net outflows only occurred on four days, with daily outflow amounts never exceeding $400 million.

For Ethereum spot ETFs, since April 9 this year, there has been a rare streak of nine consecutive days of net inflows.

On April 17, a single-day net inflow of $127 million was recorded, hitting a new high for the month. Net outflows this month only occurred on four days.

Regarding stablecoins, data from DefiLlama shows that the total has risen to $320.6 billion, with net inflows of $635 million over the past seven days.

Future outlook

Glassnode released a chart indicating that Bitcoin has regained the $78k level, with spot demand and ETF capital inflows both returning. Short positions, along with negative funding rates, suggest potential short squeezes. However, overly high realized profits and subdued volatility signals warrant caution, and resistance around $80k remains.

BIT tweeted that new sources of Bitcoin demand are gradually emerging. Continuous accumulation by Strategy provides more stable buying support, and clearer signs of allocative capital inflows are appearing. Specifically, Coinbase Premium has continued to rise, and daily net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs once reached about $664 million, the highest since mid-January.

All these signals point in one direction: the demand structure is recovering. Corporate financial buying, ETF capital inflows, and US spot demand are working together, making support at low price points more stable. Market participation is also increasing, showing a clear difference from previous correction phases. Coupled with yesterday’s analysis of stablecoin fund reflows, liquidity support is gradually strengthening. These two clues reinforce each other, suggesting the market may be gradually building a new range of oscillation. This does not necessarily mean a linear upward trend, but if these trends continue, the probability of prices moving toward the upper end of the range is increasing.