Ethereum Network Q1 Processes 200.4 Million Transactions: On-Chain Data Analysis and Full Transcript of Vitalik's Hong Kong Speech

In April 2026, the Ethereum network delivered two highly significant reports. On the on-chain data layer, in the first quarter of 2026, the mainnet transaction volume first surpassed 200 million transactions in a single quarter, a 43% increase from the previous quarter, completing a U-shaped recovery since the lows of 2023. Meanwhile, at the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin delivered a keynote speech, systematically outlining the technical roadmap covering 2026 to 2030, including mainstreaming ZK-EVM, introducing quantum-resistant signatures, and upgrading account abstraction. The intersection of on-chain data and the long-term roadmap provides a comprehensive analytical framework for understanding Ethereum’s current position and future evolution.

What factors primarily drove the record-breaking on-chain transaction volume in Ethereum Q1

According to statistics from the on-chain data platform Artemis, Ethereum’s mainnet processed 200.4 million transactions in the first quarter of 2026, a 43% increase from 145 million in Q4 2025. This growth is not an isolated short-term phenomenon—Ethereum’s quarterly transaction volume bottomed out at around 90 million in 2023, and in 2024, it mainly fluctuated between 100 million and 120 million. Starting from Q2 2025, transaction volume entered a sustained upward trend, crossing the 200 million mark in Q1 2026, forming a clear recovery curve.

The core drivers of this growth come from two directions. First, the continuous expansion of Layer 2 networks. Rollup solutions like Base and Arbitrum migrated a large amount of execution off-chain, then settled in batches on the Ethereum base layer, allowing mainnet transaction volume to grow without relying solely on active user activity on the mainnet, thus gaining significant incremental growth. Second, the increased penetration of stablecoin payment scenarios, where on-chain payments and settlements provide a steady, ongoing source of transactions for Ethereum’s mainnet.

How to quantify the contribution of Layer 2 prosperity to mainnet transaction volume

Understanding the relationship between L2 and L1 is essential for interpreting current on-chain data. Technically, Ethereum’s mainnet acts as the settlement layer and data availability layer, while L2 handles execution. Each batch of transactions submitted from L2 to the mainnet is counted as one transaction in the mainnet statistics, but behind it may be thousands or even tens of thousands of user transactions on L2. Therefore, the 200 million mainnet transactions reflect only a portion of the actual total transaction volume in the Ethereum ecosystem, which is much higher.

This structural characteristic also explains why record-high transaction volumes have not been reflected proportionally in mainnet fee revenue. Since the Dencun upgrade significantly reduced data storage costs for L2, Ethereum’s fee income per transaction has decreased markedly. The growth in transaction volume has not proportionally translated into network fee income or ETH burn volume, making the transmission path between on-chain activity and asset prices more indirect.

What are the three main lines in Vitalik’s four-year roadmap mentioned in his Hong Kong speech?

On April 20, 2026, Vitalik Buterin delivered the keynote speech at the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, clarifying Ethereum’s ultimate vision as “the world’s computer,” and revealing a hardcore roadmap covering 2026 to 2031. The “three lines in parallel” mentioned in the speech summarize the three core technical directions for Ethereum’s next four years: mainstreaming ZK-EVM deployment, introducing quantum-resistant signatures, and upgrading account abstraction protocols.

These three lines are not independent but are interconnected as an organic whole. ZK-EVM addresses scalability and verification efficiency, quantum-resistant signatures counter future cryptographic security threats, and account abstraction reshapes user-wallet interaction paradigms. Together, they form the technical pillars that will transition Ethereum from “usability” to “security, efficiency, and inclusiveness.”

How will mainstreaming ZK-EVM change Ethereum’s verification mechanism and scalability path?

ZK-EVM (Zero-Knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine compatibility layer) is one of the most groundbreaking directions in this roadmap. Vitalik proposed that by around 2028, ZK-EVM will become the primary method for verifying Ethereum chains. Nodes will no longer rely on traditional re-execution models but will verify block validity through zero-knowledge proofs, shifting from “proof rather than re-execution.”

This shift will bring multiple effects. In verification efficiency, ZK-EVM can achieve single-slot finality (10-20 seconds per slot), significantly shortening transaction confirmation times. In device accessibility, lightweight devices like smartphones and IoT gadgets will be able to verify on-chain data independently without relying on centralized full nodes, reducing centralization risks in verification. Deployment-wise, validators supporting ZK-EVM will appear in 2026, with expanded deployment in 2027, eventually transitioning to a “five-out-of-three” proof mechanism. This phased strategy ensures security and robustness during the technical upgrade.

What roles do account abstraction upgrade and quantum-resistant signatures play in the roadmap?

EIP-8141 is the core proposal for implementing the account abstraction upgrade. It treats transactions as a series of calls, natively supporting multi-part transactions, enabling features like smart contract wallets, gas sponsorship, batch operations, key rotation, and social recovery as native protocol capabilities rather than relying on third-party contracts. This upgrade will significantly improve user experience, lower entry barriers for new users, and have profound impacts on decentralized application design paradigms. The proposal has already entered the “consideration for inclusion” (CFI) stage in core developer meetings and is expected to be officially deployed in subsequent upgrades.

Regarding quantum-resistant signatures, Vitalik emphasized the increasing realism of quantum computing and the need for Ethereum to preemptively upgrade cryptography. Quantum-resistant signature algorithms have existed for over 20 years, with main challenges in efficiency—signature sizes are about 2-3 KB (compared to 64 B for ECDSA), and on-chain gas costs are around 200k (vs. about 3,000 currently). Solutions are being developed along two directions: hash-based signatures and lattice-based “vectorization.” This work is not only about defending against future threats but also about pushing the overall upgrade of Ethereum’s cryptographic infrastructure.

What are the structural reasons behind high on-chain data and activity but pressure on ETH price?

As of April 20, 2026, according to Gate data, ETH is priced at $2,326.34 USD. On-chain activity has hit record highs, yet the price remains over 50% below the peak of nearly $5,000 in August 2025, sparking widespread market discussion.

Structurally, the core reason for this divergence is the change in value capture mechanisms. After the Dencun upgrade, Layer 2 data storage costs plummeted, and the growth in transaction volume no longer proportionally translated into mainnet fee revenue and ETH burn volume. This means the “value” of Ethereum’s usage and the “asset value” of ETH have become more distanced—the on-chain transaction volume remains an important indicator of network activity, but its direct impact on ETH price has weakened significantly. Deeper logic suggests that Ethereum’s value proposition is shifting from “settlement layer transaction demand” to “settlement layer security and data availability needs,” requiring new valuation frameworks.

How do Ethereum’s long-term performance goals support the future narrative of millions of TPS?

Vitalik disclosed a series of clear performance targets in the roadmap. On the base layer (L1), Ethereum aims for about 10,000 TPS throughput; combined with Layer 2 aggregation, the overall ecosystem targets around 64B TPS. This means Ethereum will leap from an era of “tens to hundreds of TPS” directly into a “million-level TPS” narrative.

The path to this goal is becoming clearer. In the short term, the Glamsterdam upgrade (2026) will unlock throughput through mechanisms like block-level access lists, ePBS, and gas re-pricing. In the medium term, full deployment of ZK-EVM will greatly enhance verification efficiency, pushing L1 TPS into the thousands. In the long term, data availability sampling techniques and ongoing Layer 2 optimizations will support the ecosystem’s capacity at the million TPS level. This trajectory reflects Ethereum’s evolution from a “Layer 2-centric” architecture to a “full-spectrum” architecture, demonstrating a technical methodology of achieving performance leaps through multi-layer collaboration.

Summary

In Q1 2026, Ethereum’s record-breaking 200 million mainnet transactions marked a full recovery from the 2023 lows. This growth is driven by structural changes in Layer 2 expansion and stablecoin payment scenarios, also reflecting a profound restructuring of value capture pathways. Meanwhile, Vitalik’s four-year roadmap announced at the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival emphasizes three core directions: mainstreaming ZK-EVM, introducing quantum-resistant signatures, and upgrading account abstraction via EIP-8141, outlining a clear technical evolution path from the current state toward the “world’s computer” vision. On-chain data confirms current activity levels, while the roadmap anchors future directions—together, they form key coordinates for understanding Ethereum’s mid-term value logic.

FAQ

Q: What is the specific transaction volume for Ethereum in Q1 2026?

A: In Q1 2026, Ethereum processed 200.4 million transactions, surpassing 200 million for the first time in a single quarter, a 43% increase from 145 million in Q4 2025, and more than doubling the quarterly low of about 90 million in 2023.

Q: What exactly does the “three lines in parallel” in Vitalik’s Hong Kong speech refer to?

A: It refers to the three core technical directions in Ethereum’s future four-year roadmap: mainstreaming ZK-EVM deployment (expected around 2028), introducing quantum-resistant signatures (to address cryptographic security threats from quantum computing), and upgrading account abstraction protocols (centered on EIP-8141 to support native smart contract wallets).

Q: When is ZK-EVM expected to become Ethereum’s main verification method?

A: According to the roadmap, ZK-EVM is expected to become the primary verification method around 2028. Deployment will be phased: validator clients supporting ZK-EVM will appear in 2026, deployment will expand in 2027, and the network will eventually transition to a “five-out-of-three” proof mechanism.

Q: What are the core improvements included in the Pectra upgrade?

A: The Pectra upgrade merges Prague (execution layer) and Electra (consensus layer), representing the most comprehensive technical upgrade since Dencun. Key improvements include account abstraction, validator efficiency enhancements, and Layer 2 scalability optimizations.

Q: Why is Ethereum’s transaction volume hitting new highs while ETH price remains under pressure?

A: The main reason is that after the Dencun upgrade, Layer 2 data storage costs dropped sharply, so transaction volume growth no longer proportionally increased mainnet fee revenue and ETH burn volume. This changes the value capture pathway. Currently, ETH prices are more influenced by macro market conditions, ETF capital flows, and a re-evaluation of network value frameworks.