In the past two days, watching the options order book has gotten a bit too intense… The buyers seem to be running against the clock—every day that passes, a little of the time value gets worn down, and if you don’t break out of the volatility you envisioned, it’s “chronic blood loss.” The sellers, on the other hand, are collecting that small amount of premium, really betting that “it won’t get too out of line.” Time is on their side, but once the tail hits, it can just flatten you. To put it simply, who is time value eating away? Most of the time, it eats the buyers—while sellers are using low-probability disasters as a meal ticket.

Recently, everyone has been bundling RWA, US bond yields, and on-chain yield products together and comparing them, and when I hear it, I just want to laugh: over there, certainty gives you a bit of interest; over here, options give you probabilities—only you have to first endure time, and have it gradually eat away your patience. Anyway, my own obsessive-compulsive approach: if you buy, think of it as paying tuition; if you sell, write out the worst-case scenario first, otherwise you won’t be able to sleep.