#Gate13周年现场直击 Has the Bitcoin bear market bottomed out?

Recently, Bitcoin rebounded to 78k, and some are starting to turn bullish. Looking only at short-term trends, it seems like a bottom is being formed, but in fact, this is a bull trap. If every rise is seen as the start of a bull market and every fall as a bear market, it’s hard to make money.
Why is 60k not the bottom? The reason lies in the lack of time and space.
From a time perspective, historical bear markets last about a year. If this drop ends in half a year, it doesn’t align with past patterns.
From a space perspective, this round of bear market has only fallen 50%, far less than the 75% decline in the previous bear market, which also doesn’t fit the pattern.
The upcoming trend is very likely to repeat what happened in January this year, where during a consolidation phase, a false breakout occurred at the end, leading people to mistakenly think the bottom had been reached and a rebound was underway, only to turn around and head downward, starting a new decline.

To elaborate, how do we understand each stage of Bitcoin’s transition from bull to bear market?
The shift from the top of a bull market to the bottom of a bear market is divided into 6 stages.

Stage 1: The market is thriving
July-October 2025, Bitcoin stays in the 110,000-120k range, continuously hitting new highs, creating an illusion of an eternal bull market. The mainstream view at the time was that Bitcoin would have a long bull run similar to the US stock market, reaching $200k.
During this period, the market experienced prolonged sideways trading at high levels. On the surface, everything seemed strong, but in reality, the market was overloaded with high leverage.
From the candlestick charts, it’s clear that momentum was waning; each new high saw diminishing gains.
Many newcomers believed the risk had disappeared. Wild price predictions flooded in, and greed reached its peak.

Stage 2: Breaking an important psychological level
Once Bitcoin falls below a key psychological level (this cycle’s level is 100k), Stage 2 begins.
This level is crucial because its breach puts short-term investors under pressure and forces leveraged traders to exit, making them realize that the dream of a quick rebound has shattered.
Stage 2 unfolds very rapidly, leaving retail investors little time to reconsider.
A typical example is the major crash on October 11, 2025, which triggered the largest liquidation event in crypto history. All of this happened within a few hours, marking the start of the bear market.

Stage 3: Bear market confirmed, rapid decline
After Stage 2, the market accelerates its volatility, leading to even harsher drops. Bitcoin fell from $97k in January to $60k in February, a 40% plunge in just 30 days.
Stage 3 is the fastest among all stages, with extreme and rapid declines that definitively confirm the bear market. Investors are plunged into deep despair and panic, suffering losses they never expected.

Stage 4: Sideways consolidation
Currently, we are in this stage. Although volatility is low, it’s exhausting. Prices will consolidate for a long period, usually several months.
This sideways range is the area where weak investors tend to sell. Retail traders start saying Bitcoin could fall another 30-40%, and it’s better to sell now.
They missed the top exit opportunities in earlier stages and can only sell at a loss now.

Stage 5: Extreme fear and capitulation
This stage is also called the capitulation phase, and it truly marks the bottom of the bear market.
It’s the most emotional stage, with clear panic in the market, which leads to forced selling.
This phase often coincides with the collapse of major institutions, exchange failures, or black swan events.
Surprisingly, even after Bitcoin has fallen 50-70% from its all-time high, panic selling still occurs, and this pattern repeats in every cycle.
For example, during the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin dropped from 20k to 6,000, and everyone thought 6,000 was the bottom.
But a month later, due to the BCH fork, Bitcoin fell from 6,000 to 3,000, plunging the market into extreme panic and finally establishing the bear market bottom.
Similarly, in 2022, after FTX collapsed, Bitcoin dropped from 20k to 15k, and the market was again in despair, confirming the bottom.
What black swan events might trigger the final drop in this bear market? We don’t know yet.

Stage 6: Stabilization and reversal
This is the final stage, where selling pressure gradually diminishes, and the market begins laying the groundwork for the next bull cycle.
At this point, institutions start buying heavily during panic selling, while retail traders continue to shout about further declines, even extreme targets of $10k or lower.
Retail traders greedily chase lower prices again, missing the bottom of the bear market and missing out on the bull run.
So far, this pattern has repeatedly appeared in every Bitcoin cycle. Although the narratives and backgrounds differ each time, human nature remains unchanged, leading to recurring, predictable patterns.
Understanding retail traders’ behavior and market structure makes it possible to buy at the bear market bottom and sell at the bull market top—this no longer has to be a distant dream.