#KalshiFacesNevadaRegulatoryClash #WCTCTradingChallengeShare8MUSDT #Gate13周年现场直击 Has Bitcoin bottomed out? The latest interpretation of the three “market surrender” indicators

Only when miners, price, and on-chain activity all “flash red” is it a true bottom signal
After Bitcoin hit a historic high of about $126,000 in October 2025, the market has steadily declined, falling to a low of $60,033 and seeing a maximum drawdown of over 52%. Many people have started to wonder: has the bear market already run its course?
On-chain analyst Joao Wedson proposed a famous “Final Surrender Moment” framework—only when the following three pressure indicators trigger at the same time does it mark the market’s true bottom:
📉 Hash rate drops by more than 30% within 30 days
💰 Price retraces by more than 50% from the high
🔄 7-day active supply ratio exceeds 15%
Since the end of 2022, this “Market Surrender Index” has never issued a full surrender signal. So what about now?
📊 Latest readings of the three indicators
1️⃣ 30-day hash rate decline: about 14%~22% ❌
This is currently the indicator furthest from the threshold.
According to VanEck’s February 2026 report, the hash rate has only fallen by about 14% over 90 days; ChainCatcher’s data as of March 26 shows the hash rate dropped from 1.2 ZH/s to 813 EH/s, a decline of about 22%, still below the 30% trigger line. Although miner economics are indeed difficult (the hash price has fallen to a historic low of about $33 per PH/s/day), network hashrate clearing has not reached an extreme level.
2️⃣ Price retracement: about 52% ✅
This indicator has just crossed the 50% threshold.
Bitcoin has pulled back from the $126,000 high to around $60,000, with a maximum drawdown of over 52%, meeting Wedson’s price condition. But it’s worth noting that historically, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdowns in bear markets are usually between 77%~94%. A 52% retracement is not extreme within the long-term framework—which also explains why the price indicator alone triggered, while the overall signal has not yet resonated.
3️⃣ 7-day active supply: trending downward ❌
Far from the threshold.
Joao Wedson himself recently pointed out that Bitcoin’s 30-day active supply has fallen sharply in recent weeks, meaning fewer BTC are being transferred in the short term; the market is entering a typical “holding phase,” and volatility is compressing. High active supply (>15%) often corresponds to panic selling or FOMO chasing, but the on-chain behavior right now is the opposite—cool, watchful, and patiently holding.
Conclusion: Wedson’s Market Surrender Index has not yet issued a full surrender signal.
🔍 Other surrender signals worth paying attention to
Although the three core indicators have not triggered simultaneously, multiple independent “local surrender” signals have already appeared in the market:
⛏️ Hash band indicator: has been issuing miner surrender signals since late November 2025, lasting for about three months—one of the longest miner surrender periods in history. Similar situations have appeared in January 2015, December 2018, and December 2022—each of which was close to or corresponded with important bottoms.
📉 Mining economics have deteriorated severely: the hash price has fallen to a historic low of about $33/PH/s/day, while many miners’ breakeven points are around $35, leaving an extremely narrow margin—pushing many mining companies toward losses.
Long-term holder surrender: on-chain data shows that realized losses among long-term holders have continued to rise since November 2025, currently reaching about $200 million per day, confirming that active surrender behavior has emerged.
Will history simply repeat itself?
The current market structure is clearly different from late 2022 (the bottom of the previous bear market):
Increased institutionalization: Bitcoin ETF holdings are huge, making panic selling less likely;
Changes in miner accumulation patterns: some large mining companies are still stockpiling at low prices rather than surrendering unconditionally;
Bottom formation may change: the traditional pattern of “full on-chain surrender + a sharp-dip spike” may be weakening, and the bottom is more likely to evolve into a mild U-shaped bottom or extend into prolonged sideways consolidation.
💬 “Final surrender” has not arrived yet, but the market is approaching the historical bottom area across multiple dimensions. For long-term investors, what matters is not guessing the absolute lowest point, but identifying the intersection of “extreme panic” and a “value zone.”
Wedson’s indicator framework provides a clear, quantifiable perspective—when hash rate, price, and active supply all flash red at the same time, it may be the true moment for greedy buying.