In March, the second-hand housing transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen all hit new highs. Experts predict that during the May Day holiday period, various regions are expected to strengthen their policies.

How AI Policy Bonuses Catalyze Record Highs in Second-Hand Home Transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen

Since 2026, second-hand home transactions in key cities nationwide have maintained resilience, becoming an important force supporting the housing market rebound.

Data from the China Index Academy shows that in the first quarter of this year (up to March 29), second-hand residential transactions in 20 key cities totaled 319k units, down 5.7% year-on-year, but still significantly higher than the same period in 2024. In March (up to the 29th), transactions in these 20 cities reached 134k units, down 6.3% year-on-year. Weekly transaction data indicates that after the Spring Festival, second-hand home sales have increased month-over-month for five consecutive weeks. In the fourth week of March (3.23-3.29), transaction volume in these 20 cities reached a weekly high since 2025.

From the transaction structure perspective, the status of second-hand homes in the overall market continues to rise. In January-February 2026, second-hand residential transactions in 30 cities accounted for 72% of the combined new and second-hand home transactions, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to the full year of 2025.

Looking at key cities, core markets like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are showing signs of a “small spring” in the second-hand market. Since the implementation of the “Shanghai Seven Policies” a month ago, Shanghai has become the most active city in this year’s “small spring” market. According to data from the Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center’s “Online Real Estate,” in March, the total online signed contracts for second-hand homes (including commercial properties) reached 31,215 units, setting a nearly five-year high since March 2021. In terms of daily transactions, there were 13 days in March when daily online signings exceeded 1,000 units, with 7 days surpassing 1,300 units. On March 28, a single-day record of 1,585 transactions was set, the highest in nearly five years. The heat in the second-hand market is gradually spreading to the new home market, with several new developments in Shanghai planning to gradually reduce discounts starting in April.

Data from Lianjia Research Institute in Shanghai shows that since the release of the “Shanghai Seven Policies,” buyer willingness to enter the market has been active. The average transaction cycle for buyers in June 2025 was 49 days, but by March this year, it had shortened to 39 days. As transaction volume increases, the inventory pressure in outer districts has been effectively alleviated. The market is gradually shifting from the earlier “de-stocking” phase to a recovery period of supply-demand balance.

Notably, data from I Love My Home’s recent “Shanghai Real Estate Market Demand and Expectations Survey” shows that consumer expectations are also adjusting: 41.4% of respondents believe that property prices in Shanghai will rise in the next 1-2 years, with 21.6% expecting a slight increase of 1-5%, and 19.8% expecting an increase of over 5%. Additionally, 20% of respondents are uncertain about the market trend and find it difficult to judge.

The second-hand market in Beijing also delivered impressive results in March. According to Centaline Property, in March, Beijing’s online signed transactions for second-hand homes reached 19,886 units, the highest in 15 months and again approaching 20k units after March 2025.

Chief analyst Zhang Dawei of Centaline believes that in March, Beijing’s second-hand market experienced a strong “small spring” rebound driven by policy and seasonal factors, characterized by a surge in volume, stable prices, and extreme differentiation. Transactions reached a near two-year high, but prices did not rise across the board. Core districts versus peripheral areas, and high-quality versus ordinary homes, showed stark contrasts.

Data from the China Index Academy indicates that small units and low-priced second-hand homes remain the main drivers of transactions in Beijing and Shanghai. Currently, first-tier cities’ rigid demand and first-time homebuyers are generally solving their housing needs through second-hand purchases, while the new home market is shifting toward meeting improvement needs. In January-February 2026, transactions of second-hand homes under 70 square meters in Beijing and Shanghai increased to 39% and 42%, respectively. As housing prices continue to adjust, overall market supply is shifting toward lower-priced segments. The proportion of second-hand homes under 3 million yuan in Beijing and Shanghai in January-February increased by 5 and 6 percentage points respectively compared to 2025, with transaction volumes up 13% and 25% year-on-year.

The Shenzhen housing market also kicked off a “small spring” strongly in March. Data from Le You Jia Research Center shows that in March, Shenzhen’s total online signed transactions for first- and second-hand homes reached 7,898 units, up 117% month-over-month, the highest in nearly 11 months.

Le You Jia Research Center further reports that in March’s “small spring” market, the second-hand segment was strongly supported. The total online signings for second-hand homes in the month reached 5,071 units, a 117% increase MoM, maintaining a solid “support line” level, with a firm market bottom supporting further growth in the second quarter. Shenzhen’s Le You Jia stores saw second-hand signing volume increase by 244% MoM, approaching the peak level after the “929” policy in 2024; buyer interest in viewing homes also hit a five-year high, 17% higher than October 2024.

Additionally, according to Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, the city recorded 7,225 second-hand home transactions in that month (note: this data is based on the initiation time of second-hand home purchase contracts, not final transaction volume), a significant 151% increase MoM, setting a new high in nearly 12 months.

Zhang Bo, director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, pointed out that from the performance of major cities nationwide, the housing market shows a clear pattern of leading in first-tier cities and structural recovery. Transactions in second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, and other first-tier cities have seen significant volume increases, with demand release effects driven by policy stimulation; strong second-tier core cities are also recovering simultaneously, but third- and fourth-tier cities remain relatively flat. Overall, the current market has formed a pattern dominated by core city second-hand homes, and the new home market is expected to benefit from the unlocking of second-hand house exchange chains to achieve improvement.

He predicts that the national market is expected to continue its structural recovery trend in April and May, with the sustainability of policy effects still dependent on the pace of demand release. During the May Day holiday, local policies may be intensified, and the overall recovery rhythm will remain unchanged.