#周末交易计划

This weekend, I chose to turn off my computer, relax without looking at the candlestick charts—turning off not the screen, but the noise; leaving not the market, but the emotional prison. Before I start a spontaneous trip, I want to share my weekend market outlook:

1️⃣ This weekend, I bet on the market "continuing to cool down"

The saying "buy when no one is paying attention, sell when everyone is bustling" held true as the market broke through $78,000 on Friday night, with news of peace talks between Iran and the U.S. emerging. Market sentiment instantly FOMOed. At this point, market enthusiasm had peaked, and after reaching its zenith, it began to decline. There is a need for short covering, plus Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, which dealt a heavy blow to the bulls. I expect the market to continue retracing, with the first target around 73,000, and the medium-term target still looking at a dip back to over 60,000.

2️⃣ Select tokens gathering strength: Watch when RAVE rebounds

Among my selected tokens, RAVE is the most worth watching. From yesterday’s high of $29 to the current $1, the decline has exceeded 95%. The key now is to watch when it stops falling and rebounds. I think below $1 might be a good entry point for a long position. Of course, keep a small position and set stop-losses, as "catching falling knives" is a high-risk industry.

3️⃣ Three major signals breaking the calm

1. U.S.-Iran war situation: Progress on ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran is inconsistent, and the shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains 30% below pre-war levels. Iran’s latest statement indicates they will reopen the Strait, and oil prices are expected to rebound next week, while Bitcoin and gold will face pressure.

2. Federal Reserve monetary policy: U.S. March CPI year-over-year is 3.3%, core CPI is 2.6%, both above expectations. The Fed’s rate cut expectations have shifted from three cuts to one or even none. Next Monday, Fed nominee Waller will attend a hearing, and his speech will reveal the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy direction.

3. Regulatory changes: The U.S. “Clarity Act” is entering a critical voting phase in the Senate. If passed, BTC, ETH, and others will be explicitly classified as “digital commodities,” with regulatory authority transferred to the CFTC. This is a long-term positive for the crypto industry. Increased regulatory certainty will trigger institutional entry waves. Currently, the low prices are a “vacuum window” for legislative battles.

Alright, that’s my weekend outlook. I’m about to enjoy the remaining holiday time. Feel free to contact me in the comments!