#周末交易计划

A strong $78,000 suppression is forming—shorts are taking profit!
📊 Current Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at about $75,500, down approximately 2.2% over the past 24 hours. Its intraday high reached $77,269, and its low dropped to $75,349.
From recent trends, Bitcoin has gained about 1.5% over the past 7 days and about 9.6% over the past 30 days, but it is still down about 14.6% over the past 90 days. Overall, it is in a range-bound recovery phase.
At present, the weekly-level resistance near $78,000 is forming an effective cap. The market is very likely to top out around this level and continue falling. The short positions that “the little god” mentioned earlier are also in profit now. Short positions can be held as medium-term positions—this situation looks set.
📈 Technical Analysis
Multi-timeframe trend divergence is clearly visible:
Short-term (15 minutes): A bearish alignment is forming, with MA7 < MA30 < MA120. When the price breaks below MA20, the short-term outlook turns weak. The CCI indicator shows an oversold condition, suggesting there is a possibility of a technical rebound. It is worth noting that MACD shows a bottom divergence signal: even as the price makes new lows, the momentum histogram bars are rising. Be alert to the risk of a pullback.
Mid-term (4 hours): It maintains a bullish alignment, with MA7 > MA30 > MA120, and the uptrend remains strong. The ADX indicator shows sufficient trend momentum, and the SAR indicator is positioned below the candlesticks, supporting long positions.
Daily level: The SAR indicator shows a bearish trend, and the price has already broken below the 2025 realized price (about $103,227). This means the average investor who entered this year is currently sitting on an unrealized loss.
Key price levels:
Resistance: $77,000–$78,000 (after a breakout, look toward $80,000 and $82,000)
Support: $75,000–$75,500 (near MA5; a high-probability buy zone)
Major support: $73,000–$74,000 and $70,000 (if it breaks below, it may test $68,000)
🔍 Analysis of Influencing Factors
Bearish factors:
Increased selling pressure from miners: In Q1 2026, several listed mining companies (MARA, CleanSpark, etc.) together sold 32,000 BTC, setting a new quarterly high. The mining sector overall is under pressure.
Government de-risking: This year, the government of Bhutan has transferred out about 3,247 BTC (worth about $240 million), reducing holdings by more than 70% from the 2024 peak.
Panic sentiment spreading: The Fear & Greed Index is at 27 (fear zone). A decline in trading volume over 24 hours accompanied by selling indicates that market panic is intensifying.
Bullish factors:
ETF inflows continue: From April 16 to 18, Bitcoin ETFs repeatedly achieved large net inflows. On April 18, the single-day inflow set a new yearly high of $663.9 million. Morgan Stanley’s first Bitcoin ETF launched and attracted over $100 million in its first week. Charles Schwab also announced it would roll out spot trading services for retail clients.
Institutional accumulation: BlackRock and its clients have continued making large Bitcoin purchases in mid-to-late April, with daily buying amounts reaching tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars.
Improving macro environment: The market is focusing on expectations that the Federal Reserve will pivot its policy. Global liquidity is still increasing, and expectations for the end of quantitative tightening are heating up.
💬 Market Sentiment
The discussion heat on social media has risen noticeably in recent days: over the past 3 days, the number of posts increased by 72% compared with the previous week. Overall sentiment is bullish, with positive content accounting for 67% and negative content for 17%.
🔮 Outlook
In terms of news, closely monitor the outcome of the U.S.-Iran negotiations and whether the ceasefire agreement will be extended. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire during the April 21 period expires, so pay attention to whether both sides can reach a new agreement before then. If the talks fail, further attention will be needed on whether the U.S. and Israel will resume military strikes.
Short term (1–3 days): Bitcoin may consolidate narrowly within the $75,200–$76,800 range. Watch changes in trading volume; if there is a volume-backed breakout above $76,800, there is potential to test $80,000. If it breaks below the $75,000 support, it may drop to $73,000–$74,000.
Medium term (1–3 months): If it can hold the key support at $73,000, the market may challenge $82,000 or even higher.