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People saying "the bottom is in" need a history lesson: $BTC hit its all-time high of ~$126k on October 6, 2025 which is roughly 194 days ago. Here's how long previous bear markets lasted from peak to bottom:
1) 2013 - 2015: ~410 days
2) 2017 - 2018: ~365 days
3) 2021 - 2022: ~330 days
We're currently sitting around ~$75K, down about 40% from the ATH and people are calling the bottom after just 6 months?
Both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets lasted roughly a full year each. If we've bottomed already, this would be the fastest bear market resolution in BTC history by 2-3x?!
In both 2015 and 2019, BTC had relief rallies that brought the drawdown back to ~32 to 34% below the ATH before cooling off again and going lower for months. That's what this bounce looks like to me: a relief rally after a huge volatile capitulation event in early feb.
IMO this is not a maco reversal. Happy to be wrong in time, once analysis proves me otherwise (price closing weekly candles above key levels + stochastic on high time frames clearly bottoming out (HINT: we aren't even close)).
I'm not saying we're going to $40K (I focus on time rather than price). I'm saying the people who think the pain is over in 6 months when it's historically taken a year are ignoring every data point we have in history.
Patience isn't bearish, it's just using simple math and experience.