Reverse! Reverse! Reverse again! How long will the Iran-U.S. war last? Are what Trump’s blond-haired words too fake?

On April 17th, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz played out a spectacular show: opening, blockade, reopening, re-blockade. What exactly are the U.S. and Iran acting out?
$RAVE ‌
That day, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” to commercial ships, causing oil prices to plummet. Trump immediately posted multiple messages claiming Iran had agreed to “never” close the strait again, and that with U.S. assistance, mines would be cleared, presenting a victorious stance that “the war is over.”

However, just hours after Trump declared victory, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced new passage rules for the strait: first, only civilian ships are allowed; military ships are prohibited; second, ships must follow Iran’s designated routes; third, permission must be granted by the Revolutionary Guard Navy. Even more harshly, Iranian officials explicitly stated that if the U.S. blockade continued, Iran would consider it a violation of the ceasefire agreement and “reclose the Strait of Hormuz.” The Iranian Foreign Ministry also stated: “The U.S. maritime blockade violates the ceasefire agreement, and Iran will take necessary measures in response.”
$BTC ‌
More ironically, on the same day Iran announced “opening,” U.S. Defense Secretary Hagel publicly stated: if Iran refuses to reach an agreement, U.S. forces are ready to resume combat operations at any time, including “bombing infrastructure.” He also revealed that U.S. forces are using the current ceasefire to do three things—rearm, refit, and adjust combat tactics.

Meanwhile, the U.S. continues a comprehensive maritime blockade of Iranian ports. In the past 48 hours, 10 ships have been forced to turn back, with none successfully breaking through U.S. defenses. Trump himself admitted: “The maritime blockade against Iran will continue to be comprehensive and effective until a 100% deal is reached with Iran.”
$ETH ‌
But after fighting, there’s talk— the Trump administration is considering sending senior officials to Pakistan within days to resume negotiations with Iran, with Vice President Vance seen as a potential leader. Pakistani Prime Minister Shabaz and Army Chief Munir are conducting intensive shuttle diplomacy in separate directions.

Iran’s “opening” is conditional, requiring Revolutionary Guard approval; essentially, it’s a declaration to the world: Iran is the manager of this waterway. The U.S. “opening” is unconditional, free navigation not controlled by Iran. When the U.S. blocks Iranian ports, Iran threatens retaliation—two incompatible logics.

While the U.S. and Iran are at loggerheads, the UK and France are leading a meeting of about 40 countries in Paris, planning to form a multinational force focused on mine clearance, intelligence sharing, and limited escort missions to restore safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, “excluding the U.S.” France explicitly states it wants to keep its distance from U.S. military actions, but Germany suggests that U.S. involvement should not be ruled out.

From negotiations to blockade orders, from opening the strait to new passage rules, from European escort plans to U.S. military posturing—each step contradicts the other. Iran refuses to concede, the U.S. cannot afford to lose; negotiations fail to reach consensus, and the battlefield cannot determine victory or defeat. Both sides believe they hold the advantage, but neither is willing to make the first move.

The ceasefire agreement expires on April 22nd, and the window of time is narrowing. The U.S. is prepared for “both fighting and negotiations,” and Iran claims to be ready for a “long-term fight.” The game over the Strait of Hormuz is far from over.
#山寨币强势反弹