Stunning Turnaround: US and Iran Each Say Different Things; The Opening of the Strait of Hormuz Might Be an Illusion

On April 17, 2026, both the US and Iran released completely opposing messages, plunging the world's key energy routes into great uncertainty. Behind the seemingly easing situation, there lurks the risk of conflict erupting at any moment.
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Iranian Foreign Minister was the first to comment, stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be normally open to compliant commercial ships during Lebanon's temporary ceasefire. Soon after, Trump issued 11 consecutive statements, loudly claiming his side's total victory, asserting that the strait had been fully reopened, Iran no longer uses the waterway as a bargaining chip, and that Iran has cleared sea mines in the area with US assistance. He also boasted that Iran's nuclear program had been destroyed, that the US would take over all nuclear materials, and openly declared that the maritime blockade against Iran would continue until all agreements are fully implemented. Additionally, Trump criticized NATO's weak enforcement, outlined rules for handling Lebanon's situation, and kept shaping a strong diplomatic image.
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However, just a few hours later, Iran responded with a firm counterattack, completely overturning the US's victory claims. Iranian officials issued a clear warning: as long as US forces continue to blockade Iranian ports, they will consider it a breach of the ceasefire agreement and may immediately restart measures to close the Strait of Hormuz. This is not just a verbal threat; earlier, Iranian leaders openly stated that US naval fleets are well within missile strike range, and if their interests are harmed, they will impose restrictions on multiple shipping routes in the Persian Gulf, Oman Gulf, and Red Sea.

The root of the conflict lies in the fundamentally different definitions of what it means to open the waterway. The US insists on opening international straits for transit while simultaneously blocking Iran's domestic ports, separating sanctions from waterway operations. From Iran's perspective, blocking domestic ports is equivalent to cutting off energy exports, which is an act of hostility. Therefore, any conditional opening of the waterway loses its meaning.

Looking back at the recent two weeks, the situation has been oscillating between suppression, negotiations, and confrontation. On April 7, the US launched a large-scale airstrike, severely damaging Iran's maritime forces. A temporary ceasefire agreement was later reached but struggled to stabilize due to multiple conflicting interests. Negotiations in Islamabad lasted 21 hours before breaking down, with core disagreements over the duration of nuclear activity restrictions, distribution of strait interests, and full sanctions removal. After the failure, the US immediately intensified maritime blockades, further escalating tensions.

The seemingly stable status quo of the waterway has long hidden dangers. Over a dozen US warships are stationed in the relevant waters, effectively controlling the region militarily. Shipping volume has plummeted by 90% compared to pre-war levels. One-fifth of global oil transportation depends on the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing standoff has already dealt a heavy blow to the energy market, with spot crude oil prices soaring wildly. The supply-demand gap continues to widen; if the waterway is fully restricted, international oil prices could break the $100 mark, triggering global inflation pressures.

Trump's transactional diplomacy, centered on maximum pressure and simultaneous negotiations, creates a short-term illusion of easing the situation while continuously eroding the space for negotiations. Currently, during a critical phase of the US midterm elections, his high-profile victory declarations are more about catering to domestic public opinion and masking deeper flaws in Middle East policy.

The most crucial upcoming date is April 22, when the current temporary ceasefire agreement is set to expire. Under the mediation of multiple countries, there is a possibility of reaching a simple framework agreement and extending the ceasefire, but core disagreements remain unresolved. If negotiations break down again, the US is likely to escalate sanctions and military deterrence, and Iran will fulfill its promise to blockade the waterway, leading to a complete loss of control in the Middle East.

Today, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is merely superficial rhetoric; the core conflicts between the US and Iran remain unresolved. The fragile balance could be shattered at any moment. This game not only determines the future of the Middle East but also directly impacts global energy, commodities, and risk assets. The ceasefire expiration on April 22 has become a critical signal that everyone must closely monitor.