Analysis: Bitcoin approaches $76k but market sentiment remains in "Extreme Fear"

Mars Finance reports that although Bitcoin briefly rose to $76.3k this week, market sentiment remains subdued, with the fear and greed index still at 21, indicating “extreme fear,” showing a clear divergence between price and sentiment. Institutional views believe that this round of rally is more akin to a “valuation correction” rather than a trend reversal. QCP Capital describes it as a “relief rebound,” noting that macro-level inflation, energy, and policy pressures have not fully eased. Glassnode points out that Bitcoin is still about 5% below the key resistance level, the “realized market value,” approximately $78.1k, indicating limited depth in the current rebound. The capital structure also shows divergence. Spot demand and ETF fund flows have somewhat recovered, but profit-taking has increased, and institutional participation remains cautious, with derivatives markets continuing to hedge downward. Exchange data also shows that demand is mainly from offshore and retail funds rather than US institutions. Analysis suggests that around $75k has become a key support/validation level. If subsequent buying cannot absorb the selling, prices may fall back to the $70k to $71k range. On the macro front, US stocks continue to hit new highs, oil prices remain high but have not surged further, leading to a warming of market risk appetite but still with uncertainties. The market focus is shifting toward the Federal Reserve’s policy path, and the overall environment still constrains crypto assets. Overall, Bitcoin is currently maintaining a rebound but oscillating near resistance levels, with a cautious market tone and no consensus bullish trend yet.