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Just came across something worth paying attention to if you're thinking about broader economic health. Turns out 22 states are either already in a recession or sitting dangerously close to one right now.
Mark Zandi from Moody's Analytics broke down the state-level data, and here's what stands out: roughly a third of U.S. GDP is coming from states that are either in recession or facing high risk. Another third are basically treading water. That's a pretty significant chunk of the economy dealing with real pressure.
What's interesting is how uneven this is playing out. The D.C. area is getting hit particularly hard because of government job cuts. Southern states are holding up better than most, but even there the growth is noticeably slowing down. California and New York together make up over a fifth of U.S. GDP, and they're managing to stay relatively stable for now, which matters a lot for whether we tip into a full-blown recession or not.
The thing that caught my attention is how interconnected all this is. It's not like recession risk is just affecting one region. You've got some areas already showing contraction while others are just losing momentum after growing. Wyoming, Montana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kansas, Massachusetts, Washington, Georgia, New Hampshire, Maryland, Rhode Island, Illinois, Delaware, Virginia, Oregon, Connecticut, South Dakota, New Jersey, Maine, Iowa, West Virginia, and D.C. are all on the list of states facing significant economic pressure.
So are we in a recession right now? Not officially for the country as a whole, but when you look at state-level economics, the picture gets way more complicated. Nearly a third of the economy is already feeling it or close to it. That's the kind of thing that makes you wonder how long before it spreads wider. Worth keeping tabs on if you're thinking about where things are headed economically.