European stock market rebound hides an underlying unnoticed pressure

Latest data shows that the European Stoxx 600 index is expected to rise by 1% by the end of 2026, reaching 623 points, essentially recovering the losses caused by the Iran war.

However, despite the rebound appearing healthy, strategists generally believe that this momentum may be difficult to sustain, especially as the impact of rising energy costs has not yet fully manifested.

Major banks have repeatedly lowered their target forecasts, with Deutsche Bank, DekaBank, UBS, and U.S. Bank of Communications all making corresponding adjustments. Meanwhile, HSBC has become the most optimistic institution, predicting the index could rise by 8%, with a target of 670 points.

Conversely, TFS Futures and Bank of America continue to hold a bearish stance, believing the index could fall by 9%.

Behind this is not only a divergence in market sentiment but also a signal: the current rebound is a short-term correction amid many uncertainties, and the long-term growth momentum may be challenged.

(The market does not always move as expected; the real opportunities often arise at the moments of greatest disagreement)