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Just caught up on Michael Burry's latest moves and honestly, the guy's not holding back anymore. After years of staying quiet, he shut down Scion and is now writing on Substack - even did a podcast with Michael Lewis recently. The Big Short investor is basically saying: something's broken in how markets work now, and it could get messy.
Here's what's got him worried. Back in the 2000s when he was shorting housing, the market had real price discovery happening. Different investors had different views, active managers were actually picking stocks, inefficiencies existed everywhere. Today? Over half the money in stocks is passive. Just buying the index, holding, not thinking. Less than 10% is being actively managed by people who actually care about valuations and fundamentals.
Burry's point is sharp: when passive money decides to leave, there's nowhere else to go. In 2000, if the Nasdaq crashed, you could still find value elsewhere. Now he thinks everything just falls together because the structure of the market has fundamentally changed. It's not about whether stocks are overvalued anymore - it's about what happens when passive flows reverse.
He's also pretty skeptical on the AI narrative. Comparing it to the dot-com bubble, watching these companies spend insane capital without clear returns, and apparently they're playing games with depreciation schedules to make earnings look better. Classic bubble behavior.
The interesting part? Burry's not alone in thinking this. Even solid fund managers are questioning whether value investing still works in a market that's 90% passive. And he's right that most retail investors can't time this stuff. If you've got 10, 20, 30 years ahead, probably just stay the course. But if you're concerned about the structural shift Burry's flagging, at least look at your positions - especially anything that's become a massive multibagger. Maybe take some chips off the table when things are trading at 100x earnings. It's a fair warning worth thinking about.